The Minnesota Lynx will take on the Atlanta Dream in College Park, GA on Friday, June 27, 2025. Both of these teams find themselves in the top four in the WNBA standings heading into this contest. But only one will come away with a win in what could be the best game on the WNBA schedule this weekend. Continue reading to get my analysis for this game and my Minnesota Lynx vs Atlanta Dream prediction.
Our Minnesota Lynx vs Atlanta Dream Pick
- Spread: Dream -1
- Total: Over 156.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Atlanta Dream
- Date & Time: Friday, June 27, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
- Broadcast: ION
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dream -1 | Lynx +100, Dream -120 | 156.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Lynx have the best record in the WNBA at 12-2 heading into Friday night. But they did suffer a loss in their last game, with the Washington Mystics snapping Minnesota’s three-game winning streak.
- A big reason for that loss to the Mystics was the absence of MVP favorite Napheesa Collier for the Lynx. Collier is dealing with a back injury and is questionable to compete in this game.
- Atlanta is 10–5 but lost 68-55 in Dallas in their last game on June 24. The Dream have come together very nicely despite a long list of roster changes in the offseason and this is a chance for them to make a statement against last year’s runners-up.
- Atlanta is at full strength with no current injuries reported.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first matchup of three scheduled between these teams in the 2025 regular season.
- Minnesota is 12-2 straight up this season, but they are just 7-7 against the spread.
- Atlanta is 9-6 ATS in 2025.
- Atlanta is 7-7-1 in over/unders this season, while the Lynx have stayed under the total 9 times in 14 games.
- Something has to give in this game. The Dream are 6-1 at home this season, while the Lynx are 5-2 on the road.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Napheesa Collier (MIN) | Over 20.5 points | As long as Collier plays, she should be able to clear the 20-point mark by pulling the Atlanta bigs out of the paint and shooting jumpers. |
| Allisha Gray (ATL) | Over 18.5 points | Gray is averaging just under 20 points per game this season and has been the driving force behind Atlanta’s offense this season. |
| Napheesa Collier (MIN) | Under 7.5 rebounds | Collier is going to have to contend with Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner of the Dream for rebounds, which should keep her under this number. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Efficiency: Both of these teams have been great offensively, with Atlanta ranking 2nd in offensive rating and the Lynx sitting in 3rd.
- Defensive Efficiency: Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the WNBA, while the Dream rank 5th out of 13 teams.
- Pace: These teams play at the two slowest paces in the league, with Minnesota playing slower than any other team.
- Potential Mismatch: Both teams should get offense from their bigs, with Collier shooting from the outside against Jones and Griner, while Griner and Jones should score in close.
Minnesota Lynx vs Atlanta Dream Model Projection
Score Projection: Dream 82 – Lynx 76
Win Probability: Atlanta 52%, Minnesota 48%
Final Thoughts
This could be a preview of a late-round playoff matchup in the WNBA with how much talent is on both sides of this game. Collier being a question mark from a health standpoint will not help the Lynx here, nor will being on the road against an Atlanta team that has crushed their competition at home so far this year. Look for the Dream to win this contest to prove that they belong in the conversation as one of the best teams in the W alongside the Lynx and Liberty.
