The Minnesota Lynx and Los Angeles Sparks have played three times this season. Minnesota has won all three of those games and will look to complete a season sweep of the Sparks on Thursday afternoon. Can they do it or will the Sparks salvage a game from their season series? Continue reading to get my Lynx vs Sparks prediction to find out.
Our Lynx vs Sparks Pick
- Pick: LA Sparks +6
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Los Angeles Sparks
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 10, 2025, 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| MIN –6 | MIN –258 / LA +210 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- Lynx Look to Bounce Back: Minnesota leads the WNBA standings at 17-3. But they lost their most recent game against the Phoenix Mercury. This is their second straight road game and they will look to rebound on a quick turnaround.
- Sparks Injury Shakeup: LA is missing a key piece. Cameron Brink remains out until at least July 13. That is unfortunate for LA against a Lynx team led by a big in Napheesa Collier.
- Back-to-back Test: Minnesota fell in Phoenix on Wednesday. But their ability to perform on consecutive days is being tested in this back-to-back situation.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Minnesota leads the season series 3-0. All three of those wins have come by double-digits.
- Minnesota is 6-3 on the road this year. Los Angeles is 1-7 at home in 2025.
- The Lynx are 11-9 against the spread for the season. The Sparks are 7-11-1 against the number.
- Los Angeles is 11-7-1 to the over for the year. Minnesota is 12-8 to the under.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/defensive ratings: Lynx lead the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating. The Sparks are 8th in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating, and 11th in net rating.
- Pace: The Sparks rank 3rd in the league in pace. Minnesota plays with the slowest pace in the WNBA. That highlights how much more efficient the Lynx are with fewer possessions.
- Mismatches: The guards of the Lynx should be able to score at will against some bad defenders on the perimeter for the Sparks.
Lynx vs Sparks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Minnesota Lynx 82 – Los Angeles Sparks 77
- Win Probability: Minnesota 72%, Los Angeles 28%
Final Thoughts
I know that the Lynx are the better team in this matchup with the Sparks. But this is a bad situational spot for Minnesota. They are playing for the second straight day. And this is an early camp day start in LA. That should mean a loud crowd and tired legs for the Lynx to contend with. I’ll take the Sparks and the points in what should be a close game given the adversity Minnesota is facing.
