The Washington Mystics will host the Los Angeles Sparks in the first game in the league after the All-Star break. The Mystics enter the second half of the season in position to make the playoffs if they can avoid dropping in the standings. But they face a desperate Sparks team in this game and will need to work hard to protect their home court. Continue reading to get my analysis and my Sparks vs Mystics prediction for Tuesday night.
Our Sparks vs Mystics Pick
- Pick: Washington Mystics -3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Game: Use BetMGM promo code ATSBONUS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet does not win!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 22, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: ESPN3
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparks | +3 (-110) | +105 | O 168 (-110) |
| Mystics | -3 (-110) | -125 | U 168 (-110) |
Key Storylines
- The Mystics are 11-11 going into the second half of the season. They have taken huge strides in a hurry, with All-Star rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen helping them to exceed expectations in 2025.
- The Sparks have one of the best scorers in the WNBA in Kelsey Plum. But they don’t have a ton of consistent help for her. The Sparks are 8-14 and need wins quickly to contend for the playoffs.
- Los Angeles is without Cameron Brink but could have her back from last season’s ACL injury by the end of July.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The Sparks won the first game of the regular season series between these teams on July 15. That game saw the Sparks win by 19 points at home. The Sparks are 8-13-1 against the spread in 2025. Washington is 11-11 against the spread.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Plum | Over 5.5 assists | Plum is averaging 5.8 assists and has topped 6 assists multiple times in July as the Sparks look to get others involved. |
| Dearica Hamby | Over 15.5 points | Hamby is a focal point in the Sparks’ attack and is very good at getting to the basket on downhill runs. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Sparks are sixth in the WNBA in offensive rating. The Mystics are 12th out of 13 teams in that category.
- Washington ranks seventh in defensive rating. The Sparks are 10th in defensive rating.
- Both teams are in the top four in the W in pace and that could be good news for the over.
- Key matchup: Iriafen’s interior play vs. Azura Stevens and Hamby will be an area to watch. Washington needs to dominate in the paint to control the tempo of this one.
Sparks vs Mystics Model Projection
Score Projection: Washington Mystics 85 – Los Angeles Sparks 80
Win Probability: Washington Mystics 54%, Los Angeles Sparks 46%
Final Thoughts
I like the Mystics to win and cover the spread at home here. The Mystics are 7-3 at home this year and should continue their winning ways in front of their fans. This game will look very different than the game between these teams last week and I recommend laying the points with the favorite.
