The biggest favorite on the Thursday WNBA schedule is the New York Liberty as they host the Los Angeles Sparks in a battle of teams with storied histories in the W. New York sits atop the Eastern Conference at 11‑5, but injuries and recent losses have made their title defense tougher. The Sparks, meanwhile, slump at 5‑12, and need to get it together if they want to play postseason basketball this year. Here, I break down this inter-conference matchup and give you my Sparks vs Liberty prediction for Thursday night.
Our Sparks vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: LA Sparks +12.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Sparks @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NYL −12.5 | NYL −750, LAS +525 | 169.5 |
Key Storylines
- Liberty seeking defensive rebound: New York owns the WNBA’s third‑best defensive rating, but has allowed 90 or more points in two straight. Jonquel Jones remains out with an ankle injury, which has limited what the Liberty can do on that end of the floor.
- Offensive firepower intact: Despite their recent defensive issues, New York still has a lethal offense led by Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.
- Sparks continue to rebuild: LA sits in 11th out of 13 teams in the WNBA standings at 5‑12. The Kelsey Plum trade sparked hope, but results haven’t followed yet.
- Playoff implications: New York needs wins if they want to work their way back into the top two in the standings. LA is not out of playoff contention yet, but it needs to start making up ground before the All-Star break.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first game of a three-game regular-season series between New York and LA in 2025.
- Against the spread, New York is 6‑10, LA is 6‑11.
- Totals have gone over in 10 of New York’s 16 outings and 10 of LA’s 17 games.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | Over 20.5 points | Stewart averages 20.8 ppg this season. Expect her to get more on LA’s poor interior defense. |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Over 4.5 assists | With NY playing uptempo, that number feels safe. |
| Kelsey Plum | Over 18.5 points | Plum’s usage has been sky-high this season. Sparks need her scoring punch to stay close. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Off/Def Efficiency: New York is second in the league in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. LA is 8th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating.
- Pace: If you like fast-paced basketball, this is your game. The Liberty rank first in the W in pace, LA is third.
- Mismatch: LA lacks size to slow Stewart, while NY’s perimeter play with Ionescu and Stewart should have success against a bad perimeter defense.
Sparks vs Liberty Model Projection
| Score Projection | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| NYL 88 – LAS 78 | NYL 86%, LAS 14% |
Final Thoughts
I think that the Liberty should win this game pretty easily at home, even if they are without Jonquel Jones. Still, I am going to take the points with the Sparks, as 12.5 points is too big a number for the Liberty to cover with the way they have been playing of late. A comfortable 10-point margin should be what we see, with LA rewarding bettors for backing them ATS.
