The New York Liberty will host the Los Angeles Sparks on Saturday night at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Both teams enter this game on extended winning streaks and will look to continue their winning ways here. But scheduling could make this game tougher than usual for one of the best teams in the WNBA. Continue reading to get my Sparks vs Liberty prediction for Saturday.
Our Sparks vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: LA Sparks +12.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Sparks @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: July 26, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Sparks vs Liberty Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty ‑12.5 | Sparks +525, Liberty ‑750 | 175.5 |
Key Storylines
The Liberty are on a five‑game winning streak and are second in the WNBA standings with a 17-6 record. They are without Nyara Sabally and Emma Meesseman, though Meesseman should make her debut with the team soon. The Liberty are on the second night of a back‑to‑back stretch and fatigue could be a factor in this matchup.
The Sparks are riding a four‑game win streak and are still in contention for a playoff berth. Cameron Brink is doubtful and likely won’t play in this game. That could be a bigger problem than usual against a Liberty frontcourt that has Jonquel Jones back from an ankle injury. Still, the Sparks will look to take advantage of their rest edge going into this game.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- The Liberty won the first meeting of the season between these teams by 10 points at home in early July.
- The Liberty are a .500 team against the spread at 11-11-1.
- The Sparks are 10-13-1 against the spread in 2025.
- New York is 12-11 to the over with their totals this season.
- Los Angeles is 16-7-1 to the over. They have the highest over percentage in the WNBA.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
New York is second in the league in offensive rating and defensive rating. They trail only the Minnesota Lynx in both of those categories. The Sparks are fifth in offensive rating but 11th out of 13 teams in defensive rating.
A key matchup to watch in this game features the frontcourts on both sides. Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart have certainly earned more individual accolades than Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens. But Hamby and Stevens should not be slept on as they can compete with the two former MVPs suiting up for New York.
Sparks vs Liberty Model Projection
Score Projection: Sparks 78 – Liberty 85
Win Probability: Sparks 13%, Liberty 87%
Final Thoughts
I think that the Liberty will win the second game of this back-to-back on Saturday. But I think it is going to be closer than this huge point spread would imply. Look for the Sparks to cover the number behind the scoring of Kelsey Plum and the tenacity of Hamby and Stevens. I expect the Liberty to win by around seven points.
