The Indiana Fever will host the Los Angeles Sparks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Thursday, June 26, 2025, in an inter-conference WNBA showdown. With Indiana returning home after a West coast road trip and Los Angeles dealing with a rash of injuries, this contest is packed with storylines to dissect. Continue reading for my breakdown of this game and my Los Angeles Sparks vs Indiana Fever prediction.
Our Los Angeles Sparks vs Indiana Fever Pick
- Spread: Sparks +11
- Total: Over 170.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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4.5/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Sparks @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 26, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: Prime Video
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Fever –11 | Fever –650, Sparks +440 | 170.5 |
Key Storylines
- Fever returning home: Indiana is back at home after a three-game West coast road trip in which they went 1-2. They ended that road trip with an encouraging win over the Seattle Storm, which they will aim to build on here.
- Clark’s form: Caitlin Clark is tied for the league lead in assists at 8.9 per game but has been struggling with her shot since returning from injury.
- Bonner saga: DeWanna Bonner remains absent and wants out of Indiana, and it will be interesting to see how the Fever respond to that bit of adversity.
- Sparks’ injuries: L.A. is missing some key players, but could have Cameron Brink back for this game or in the near future, which would give them a huge lift.
- Early season records: The Sparks are 4‑11, while the Fever enter this game at 7-7. LA has lost four straight games and are running out of time to get back into playoff contention.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first of four games to be played between these teams during the 2025 WNBA season.
- ATS record: The Fever are 7-7 against the spread this season, while LA is a dismal 5-10 ATS.
- O/U trends: Fever games have gone under the total 8 times in 14 games, while Sparks games are 9-5-1 to the over.
- Home/Road splits: The Fever are 4-3 at home this season, while the Sparks are 3-5 on the road.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Clark | Over 9.5 Assists | Leads league at 8.9 APG, high usage suggests big assist night against bad LA defense. |
| Kelsey Plum | Over 20.5 Points | Indiana guards are their weakness on defense, Plum could take advantage of that. |
| Aliyah Boston | Under 8.5 Rebounds | Averages 8.2 rebounds per game, has to share boards with Natasha Howard on her own team while competing with Dearica Hamby of LA. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense/Defense: Indiana ranks fourth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. LA is eighth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating.
- Pace: Both teams play fast, with Indiana ranking third in pace and the Sparks not far behind in fourth.
- Potential Mismatches: Boston could have a big night if Brink remains out for the Sparks, while Kelsey Plum could score in bunches against a soft perimeter defense for the Fever.
Los Angeles Sparks vs Indiana Fever Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana Fever 91 – Los Angeles Sparks 82
Win Probability: Fever 68%, Sparks 32%
Final Thoughts
Indiana should be able to win this game on their home floor over the Sparks. Clark’s struggles scoring of late are made up for by her ability to get her teammates involved, especially the hyper-efficient Boston. But LA could keep this game close if Plum’s shot is there. Look for the Fever to win a high-scoring game, but for the Sparks to ultimately cover the number on Thursday night.
