On Saturday, July 5, 2025, the Los Angeles Sparks and Indiana Fever will meet for the second time this season. The Sparks won in Indianapolis in the first meeting of the year between these teams. Here, Indiana will look for revenge and to build on their recent hot streak. Here, I break down this inter-conference WNBA matchup and give you my Sparks vs Fever prediction for Saturday.
Our Sparks vs Fever Pick
- Pick: Sparks +7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: LA Sparks @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: July 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: NBA TV
| Odds | Sparks | Fever |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7.5 (–110) | –7.5 (–110) |
| Moneyline | +250 | –310 |
| Total | 163.5 | |
Key Storylines
- Caitlin Clark’s groin injury: Clark has missed significant time recently due to her groin injury. But the Fever have started to figure things out without her in the lineup.
- Indiana’s momentum: Indiana is coming off a dominant 81–54 win over Las Vegas and a Commissioner’s Cup championship victory over the Minnesota Lynx.
- Sparks struggles: LA stunned Indiana on June 26, but has lost two straight games since then to drop to 5-13 on the season.
- Kelsey Plum’s form: averaging 20.1 PPG and 5.7 APG, Plum needs support from Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens for the Sparks to have a chance here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- June 26: Sparks beat Fever 85–75, coming back from 10 down. LA leads the season series 1–0.
- Indiana is 4–1 SU and 4–1 ATS in the last 5 games.
- The Sparks are 6-11-1 against the spread this season.
- Indiana is 5-4 at home this season, the Sparks are 4-6 on the road.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive efficiency: Indiana is fourth in the league in offensive rating, the Sparks are eighth.
- Defensive efficiency: Fever are also fourth in defensive rating, Sparks rank 11th.
- Pace of play: The Sparks are third in the WNBA in pace, Fever rank ninth.
- Potential Mismatch: Kelsey Plum could have a big game against a Fever defense that is better on the inside than the outside.
Sparks vs Fever Model Projection
Score Projection: Sparks 84 – Fever 89
Win Probability: Sparks 27%, Fever 73%
Final Thoughts
I think that the Fever will win this game when all is said and done. They are putting things together despite not having Clark on the floor, with the hyper-efficient Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell stepping up. But I don’t think it will be a blowout win for the Fever either. Plum showed that she can go off for a big night against the Fever once already this year. I expect her to do it again in this game to help the Sparks cover the number as an underdog.
