The Los Angeles Sparks head to Uncasville to face the struggling Connecticut Sun on Thursday night. The Sparks have won three games in a row coming into this matchup. They have a chance to help their playoff hopes with a win here against the team with the worst record in the league. Before tip-off, continue reading to get my Sparks vs Sun prediction for Thursday night.
Our Sparks vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Over 166.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: July 24, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparks | -6 | -258 | 166.5 |
| Sun | +6 | +210 |
Key Storylines
- Connecticut continues to rebuild under rookie coach Rachid Meziane. They have just three wins for the year and have lost three straight games entering this matchup.
- Sun guard Marina Mabrey remains sidelined with a knee injury. Her absence has made things even tougher for the Sun offensively.
- Los Angeles could have forward Cameron Brink back for this game. Brink participated in the team’s shootaround before their game against the Mystics earlier this week. She suffered the knee injury that has kept her out for the past year against this same Sun team.
- The Sparks rely heavily on sharpshooter Kelsey Plum. She is averaging 19.7 points per game and will be a key figure in this contest as well.
- Connecticut ranks last in offensive, defensive, and net rating this year. The question is whether things will get better or continue to get worse for them in this contest.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Sparks eked out a 92‑88 victory in their first matchup with the Sun this year. The Sun were double-digit underdogs and covered the spread easily.
- Connecticut is 4‑1 ATS in its last 5 games but only 1‑4 SU in that span.
- The Sparks are 9-13-1 against the spread this season. Connecticut is 11-11 ATS.
- Sparks games are 15-7-1 to the total this year. The Sun are 10-11-1 on over/unders this season.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: The Sparks rank fifth out of 13 teams in offensive rating. Connecticut is 13th.
- Defense: Los Angeles is 11th in defensive rating. The Sun are dead last once again.
- Pace: These teams play very different styles of basketball. The Sparks are third in the league in pace. Connecticut plays at the league’s slowest tempo.
- Mismatches: Plum should have a field day against Connecticut’s perimeter defenders. The Sun could get a good game from Tina Charles against the Sparks frontcourt.
Sparks vs Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Sparks 90 – Sun 83
Win Probability: Sparks 70%, Sun 30%
Final Thoughts
I think that the LA Sparks will win their fourth game in a row here. But I’m not sure that they win it easily enough to cover the number reliably. Instead, I turn my attention to the total in this matchup. The Sparks play at a fast pace and should be able to impose their tempo on this game. I expect this game to go over the total after these teams played a high-scoring game in their first meeting of the 2025 season.
