The Washington Mystics and Las Vegas have split their first two meetings this season. They will play for the third time on Thursday, July 10. Both teams are 9-10 on the season going into this contest. That makes this a huge game as the playoff picture continues to come into focus. Here, I break down this WNBA matchup and make my Aces vs Mystics prediction.
Our Aces vs Mystics Pick
- Pick: Mystics -2
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Washington Mystics
- Date & Time: July 10, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: EagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA
- Broadcast: Prime Video
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mystics -2 | Aces +110 / Mystics -130 | 157.5 |
Key Storylines
- A’ja Wilson’s wrist: The reigning MVP exited Tuesday’s game vs New York and is questionable after an MRI came back clear enough to list her as questionable.
- Megan Gustafson return: Gustafson is listed as probable. She’ll add depth in the frontcourt and help limit the devastation of a Wilson injury.
- Playoff implications: These teams are in a three-way tie with the Indiana Fever for seventh place in the WNBA standings. A win here would be huge for the playoff hopes of whoever can get it.
- Home form: Mystics are 6‑3 at home and have won three straight in Fairfax.
- Aces’ road woes: 4‑6 away, including the late collapse against the Liberty last time out.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
The teams have split their season series 1-1 so far. Washington took the June 26 regular‑season meeting 94‑83 on the Aces’ floor. Las Vegas is 7-12 against the spread this season. Washington is 10-9 ATS. Both teams have gone under the total in the majority of their games in 2025.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Pace & Scoring: Both teams average just under 80 points per game. They are middle of the pack in pace and the tempo shouldn’t influence the total too heavily in either direction.
- Defensive edge: The Mystics are slightly better in defensive rating and should have the edge on defense.
- Frontcourt mismatch: If Wilson is limited or out and Gustafson is rusty, the Mystics have the advantage inside.
Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics Model Projection
Score Projection: Mystics 84 – Aces 79
Win Probability: Mystics 60%, Aces 40%
Final Thoughts
I would probably back the Aces to get a win here if A’ja Wilson was healthy going into this game. But the Aces lack depth as it is and could struggle mightily without Wilson on the floor. Bettors may want to wait for an update on Wilson’s status before betting this game. But there is a ton of upside in backing the Mystics now. They will be heavily favored if Wilson is ruled out and will look like a bargain at their current price.
