The Las Vegas Aces will face the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night in Phoenix. This is a game with huge implications in the WNBA playoff race. Both of these teams are in the top eight in the league standings and are separated by just one game. This game will put the winner ahead of the loser in the standings for now. Before tip-off from Phoenix, continue reading to get my Aces vs Mercury prediction for this massive matchup.
Our Aces vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces +4
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: August 15, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ION
Aces vs Mercury Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aces | +4 | +150 | 166.5 |
| Mercury | -4 | -180 |
Key Storylines
- The Aces have won five straight games coming into this matchup. Their most recent triumph was an 83-77 win over the New York Liberty on August 13. A’ja Wilson has been dominant and will look to continue to put up massive numbers to carry her team to another win.
- Phoenix had a three-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Atlanta Dream in their last outing. The Mercury will attempt to bounce back against their Western Conference rivals behind the play of WNBA MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas.
- The Mercury remain healthy going into this game. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus is the only name on the Las Vegas injury report at this time.
- These teams are fourth and fifth in the WNBA standings. The winner of this game will be ahead of the loser going into the weekend. This game could help decide which team has home-court advantage if these teams were to meet in the first round of the postseason.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- These teams have split their first two meetings of the regular season so far.
- Road teams are 2-0 in games between the Aces and Mercury in 2025.
- The Mercury have gone 17-14 against the spread this season.
- Las Vegas is 15-18 against the spread for the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: The Mercury are sixth in the WNBA in offensive rating. Las Vegas is right behind them in seventh place.
- Defense: Phoenix is second in the WNBA in defensive rating. Las Vegas is ninth in the W in that category.
- Pace: Expect a fast game. Phoenix is second in the WNBA in pace and the Aces are sixth in tempo.
Aces vs Mercury Model Projection
- Score Projection: Las Vegas Aces 84 – Phoenix Mercury 87
- Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 51%, Las Vegas Aces 49%
Final Thoughts
I think we are going to see another tight game between the Aces and Mercury on Friday night. This game will come down to which star player will step up and make winning plays in big moments. I think that Vegas has a great chance to steal another road win in Phoenix given how good A’ja Wilson is at making those winning plays. I’ll take the points with the Aces with the expectation of a one-possession game.
