The Las Vegas Aces head on the road to face the Minnesota Lynx on Tuesday, June 17, 2025, in what promises to be a high-stakes showdown. Both teams bring elite talent and championship pedigree, with MVP-caliber stars A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier leading the charge for their respective teams. Here, we break down this huge matchup and provide our Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx prediction for this Commissioner’s Cup contest.
Our Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx Pick
- Spread: Lynx –9
- Total: Over 163.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: June 17, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx –9 | MIN –395 / LVA +310 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- These teams both had championship aspirations going into this season, but only the Lynx have lived up to them so far. Vegas is 5-5 and has lost three of their last four games, while the Lynx enter this matchup at 10-1 on the year.
- A’ja Wilson is averaging 20.9 PPG and 9.6 RPG, remaining the anchor on both ends of the floor for Vegas. Collier is putting up 26.1 PPG and 8.8 RPG, as she has become the odds-on favorite to win WNBA MVP this season.
- Lynx are 5–0 at home and 10–1 overall, while the Aces are 2-3 on the road this year.
- Wilson is questionable for this game due to injury and Las Vegas has struggled in the games she has missed recently.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Season Series: This is the first meeting between these teams in 2025.
- ATS records: Aces are 3-7 ATS, while the Lynx have gone 5-6 against the spread.
- O/U trends: Aces games are 6-5 to the over this year, while Lynx games lean under (5-6).
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Napheesa Collier | Over 23.5 points | Collier has been scoring at will this season and could benefit greatly if Wilson remains out for Las Vegas. |
| Courtney Williams | Over 5.5 assists | Williams is averaging 6.0 assists per game and should continue to produce as she looks for Collier to score. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Lynx rank second in the W in offensive rating, while the Aces are all the way down in eighth, a huge departure from what we’ve seen in recent seasons.
- Pace: Aces play fast (4th in the league in pace), whereas the Lynx play with the second-slowest pace in the WNBA.
- Key mismatch: If Wilson can’t go for Las Vegas, Collier should have no problems getting what she wants offensively.
Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx Model Prediction
- Score Projection: Las Vegas 76 – Minnesota 90
- Win Probability: Lynx 68%, Aces 32%
Final Thoughts
Expect a physical, high-scoring contest with the Lynx controlling tempo and benefiting from their home-court advantage. Though the Aces have firepower, Wilson’s injury concerns are a problem, while the Aces defense puts them at a disadvantage against a team that looks like it could be headed back to the WNBA Finals later this year. Back the Lynx –9 in a game that could also go over the total.
