The Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx will square off in WNBA action on Friday night at Target Center. The Aces come into this game on the second night of a back-to-back. That could spell trouble for them against the team with the best record in the league. Before the opening tip in this Western Conference showdown, continue reading to get my analysis and my Aces vs Lynx prediction.
Our Aces vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -10.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: July 25, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: ION
Aces vs Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| MIN -10.5 | MIN -455 / LVA +350 | O/U 160.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Lynx are undefeated at home and are elite both offensively and defensively this season.
- The Aces are facing the second leg of a back‑to‑back on the road here. They lost to the Indiana Fever thanks to an underwhelming second half performance on Thursday night.
- Arguably the two best players in the league will face off in this game. A’ja Wilson leads Vegas with 22.3 PPG and 9.2 RPG. Napheesa Collier leads Minnesota at 23.0 PPG and 7.6 RPG. That will be a fun matchup to watch.
- The Lynx have the best record in the W and Vegas is in seventh place in the standings. This game has huge postseason implications for both teams.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- The Lynx lead the season series between these teams 1-0. They beat Las Vegas 76-62 at home earlier this season.
- The Lynx are 15-10 against the spread this season. Vegas is 9-15 against the number.
- Lynx games are 13-12 to the under on the year. Aces games are 14-10 to the under.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Minnesota ranks first in both offensive and defensive rating this season. Las Vegas is ninth in the WNBA in both of those categories.
- The tempo battle in this game will be interesting. Vegas ranks sixth in the league in pace and will look to speed up a Minnesota team that is 12th out of 13 teams in pace.
- The matchup to watch in this game is obviously Collier vs. Wilson. But the Lynx should have a significant advantage on the perimeter here.
Aces vs Lynx Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota Lynx 87 – Las Vegas Aces 76
Win Probability: Minnesota Lynx ~65 %, Las Vegas Aces ~35 %
Final Thoughts
All signs point toward a comfortable Minnesota win here. The Lynx are so good on both ends of the floor and they have won all 13 of their regular-season home games this season. Minnesota also has a significant rest advantage over an Aces team that had to play a grueling game last night against the Fever. I’ll take the Lynx to cover the spread as a heavy favorite in this game as they should make another statement that they are here to contend for the title in 2025.
