The Las Vegas Aces travel to Indianapolis to take on the Indiana Fever on Thursday night. Both teams enter this game in the top eight in the WNBA standings. There is playoff positioning on the line for both teams and an injury subplot that could decide this game’s outcome. Here, I break it all down and give you my Aces vs Fever prediction for Thursday night in the WNBA.
Our Aces vs Fever Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -1.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: July 24, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: Prime Video
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aces -1.5 | Aces -125 / Fever +105 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- Aces rolling: Las Vegas has won three straight games heading into this contest. Their most recent triumph was an 87‑72 home win over the Atlanta Dream. Las Vegas was paced by A’ja Wilson’s 24‑point and 12‑rebound double‑double in that matchup.
- Fever without Clark: Caitlin Clark could be out again with a lingering groin issue. The Fever have struggled without her in the lineup. They have had to switch their rotations around to try and avoid a complete drop-off offensively without her.
- Depth and momentum: The Fever won the Commissioner’s Cup without Clark. They showed they can grind out wins without her in that situation. But they have lost two straight games to the New York Liberty coming into this game and will need to prove themselves all over again here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- These teams have split their first two meetings of the season. The home team has won both games in their season series so far.
- Las Vegas is 9-14 against the spread on the year.
- Indiana is 11-13 against the spread in 2025.
- The Aces are 10-13 on over/unders this season.
- Indiana is 12-12 on totals in their first 24 games of the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: The Aces score 80.9 points per game and rank ninth in offensive rating. Indiana averages 84.2 points per game and they are third in the W in offensive rating.
- Defense: Las Vegas has given up 81.7 points per game. They are ninth in the league in defensive rating. Indiana is eighth in the league in defensive rating and gives up 80.9 points per game.
- Pace: Both teams play at tempos that are in the middle of the pack in the WNBA. Las Vegas is sixth in pace and the Fever rank seventh.
- Mismatch alert: A’ja Wilson dominates inside and on the glass. Her face-up game could make life difficult on Indiana big Aliyah Boston in a battle of South Carolina Gamecock greats.
Aces vs Fever Model Projection
Score Projection: Las Vegas Aces 83 – Indiana Fever 79
Win Probability: Aces 62%, Fever 38%
Final Thoughts
This game could come down to whether or not Caitlin Clark is able to return from her groin injury. Bettors may want to wait until her status is confirmed before placing their bets on this one. As far as I’m concerned, the Aces should be able to win this game if Clark is out. I’ll lay the 1.5 points with the Aces and wait and see on the status of Indiana’s star guard.
