The Connecticut Sun will host the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday, July 6. Connecticut has been by far the worst team in the WNBA so far this season and they face and uphill battle against a desperate Aces team. Here, I break down this WNBA matchup and make my Aces vs Sun prediction for Sunday afternoon at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Our Aces vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -16
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For the Game: bet365 promo code – ATSBONUS – bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets, win or lose!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ 
4.8/5
✓ Early Payouts
✓ 100% Parlay Boost
✓ Daily LineUps
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
✓ Early Payouts
✓ 100% Parlay Boost
✓ Daily LineUps
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | -16 (-110) | -1600 | O/U 158 |
| Connecticut Sun | +16 (-110) | +900 |
Key Storylines
- Connecticut has lost nine games in a row and they have emerged as the clear worst team in the WNBA. They are coming off of a 39-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx.
- Marina Mabrey is out for the Sun with a knee injury, making a bad situation worse for them.
- Las Vegas was destroyed by the Indiana Fever in their last game, leading head coach Becky Hammon to call out the effort of her team.
- A’ja Wilson is averaging 22.1 points per game and is playing at a high level despite the overall struggles of her team.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Aces have swept Connecticut through two meetings this season, winning 87‑62 and 85‑59.
- Connecticut is 7-10 ATS. The Aces have struggled ATS at 6-11, but they have covered twice against the Sun this year.
- The Aces are 3‑5 on the road and the Sun are 1‑6 at home.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 10.5 Rebounds | The Sun are last in rebound rate. Wilson is averaging 9.4 rpg and should get into double-digits here. |
| A’ja Wilson | Over 22.5 Points | Wilson is averaging 22.1 ppg and she should come out firing against the worst team in the W. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Efficiency: The Aces rank ninth in the W in offensive rating, the Sun are 13th out of 13 teams.
- Defensive Efficiency: The Aces are ninth in defensive rating, the Sun are again last.
- Pace of Play: Las Vegas plays at a faster pace, ranking sixth in pace while the Sun are 12th in tempo.
- Potential Mismatch: A’ja Wilson should dominate in this game against Tina Charles and the rest of the Sun frontcourt, which has struggled to stop quality bigs throughout this season.
Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun Model Projection
- Score Projection: Las Vegas 90 – Connecticut 72
- Win Probability: Las Vegas 85%, Connecticut 15%
Final Thoughts
I expect the Las Vegas Aces to come out with some fire in their belly in this game after being called bout by Hammon following their loss to the Fever. A’ja Wilson should have another huge game for the Aces, who should demolish the Sun for the third straight time this season. Connecticut will drop their 10th straight and continue to look like the worst team in the W by a wide margin.
