On Wednesday night in the desert, the Los Angeles Sparks visit the Phoenix Mercury for an early–season Western Conference matchup in the WNBA. Both clubs opened 2025 with wins: Phoenix throttled Seattle in its first outing behind red-hot shooting and smothering defense, while Los Angeles split a two-game swing that featured a dazzling Kelsey Plum debut and an injury list that keeps growing. This Sparks vs Mercury meeting at PHX Arena will test the Sparks’ depth against a Mercury squad seeking to prove its opening-night dominance was no fluke.
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Sparks vs Mercury Game Preview
New head coach Lynne Roberts has handed the keys of the Sparks’ offense to recent blockbuster acquisition Kelsey Plum, and the early returns are explosive. The All-Star guard erupted for 37 points in her Sparks debut against the Golden State Valkyries and she has averaged 27.5 points, 5.5 assists and 3.0 steals through two contests while shooting 48.5 percent from the floor.
Fellow veteran Dearica Hamby continues to be the interior engine for LA, producing 17 points and 10 rebounds per game, and forward Azurá Stevens is off to a great start at 16 points on 57.9 percent shooting. Those bright spots are tempered by absences: rookie rim-protector Cameron Brink (ACL) remains sidelined, wing Rae Burrell is nursing a leg issue, and sophomore scorer Rickea Jackson is being monitored after a concussion over the weekend.
Phoenix opened its schedule by blasting Seattle 81-59, holding the Storm to 38 percent shooting and flexing an offense built around new faces. Satou Sabally poured in 27 points in 26 minutes, Alyssa Thomas flirted with a triple-double (20-7-6), and the Mercury collectively shot 51.7 percent from the field. Rookie guard Alexa Held and veteran sharpshooter Sami Whitcomb add perimeter punch, while 6-foot-7 Kalani Brown anchors the paint with a pair of blocks in her Mercury debut.
The Mercury injury report isn’t spotless. Scoring wing Kahleah Copper (knee) is out four to six weeks, while forward Natasha Mack (back) is unavailable due to a lower back injury. But coach Nate Tibbetts still deploys a rotation brimming with length and versatility.
Stylistically, the Sparks thrive in an up-tempo, guard-centric game plan built on Plum’s downhill bursts and drive-and-kick threes (8.0 triples per game). Phoenix counters with balanced inside-out efficiency, posting the league’s second-best field-goal clip and ranking top three in rebounding margin after one outing. If Los Angeles is forced to rely heavily on bench contributors like Odyssey Sims, sustaining pace while protecting the ball will be vital. The Sparks average 11.0 turnovers, but Phoenix’s length generated 14 Seattle miscues on Saturday.
Betting Insights
- Spread: Mercury –5.5 (-110); Sparks +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mercury –230; Sparks +190
- Total: 162.5 points
- Against the spread: Phoenix 1-0; Los Angeles 1-1
- Scoring averages: Phoenix 81.0 ppg, Los Angeles 79.5 ppg
- Defensive averages: Phoenix 59.0 ppg allowed, Los Angeles 78.0 ppg allowed
- Key player stats:
- Satou Sabally 27.0 points per game, 3-for-9 from deep
- Kelsey Plum 27.5 points per game; over 2.5 made threes in both outings
The early line movement toward the Over reflects Phoenix’s blistering shooting and Los Angeles’ pace preference, yet the Sparks’ injury-thinned rotation could slow them late. The spread sits inside of two possessions, suggesting bookmakers respect Plum’s star power even against a deeper Mercury bench.
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Sparks vs Mercury Prediction
Phoenix’s combination of efficiency and defensive length should wear down a Sparks team missing multiple rotation forwards. Expect Alyssa Thomas to exploit Los Angeles’ shaky interior with her elbow-area playmaking, while Sabally’s wing size challenges the Sparks’ undersized backcourt. Plum is capable of single-handedly keeping the visitors in touch, but if Hamby encounters early foul trouble, secondary scoring could dry up fast.
Projected score: Mercury 87, Sparks 80. My projection leans to Phoenix covering the short spread and for the game to go over the total. Recommended play: Phoenix –5.5; sprinkle the over 162.5 for added value.
Bettors should monitor the final injury report—particularly Rickea Jackson’s status—for potential line shifts. As of Tuesday night, the edge lies with a Mercury roster that shoots better, rebounds stronger and carries fewer health concerns.
