The Indiana Fever will continue their West coast road trip with a matchup against the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday night. Indiana had a five-game winning streak snapped in their last outing. They will look to bounce back against a Mercury team that is in the top four in the WNBA standings this year. Before tip-off at PHX Arena, continue reading to get my Fever vs Mercury prediction.
Our Fever vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -6
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: August 7, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Fever vs Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Fever | +6 (‑110) | +205 | Over 170.5 (‑110) |
| Phoenix Mercury | ‑6 (‑110) | ‑250 | Under 170.5 (‑110) |
Key Storylines
- The Fever had their winning streak broken on the road against the LA Sparks on Tuesday night. Kelsey Mitchell scored 34 points in the loss and she continues to shine in the absence of Caitlin Clark.
- Phoenix cruised to an 82‑66 home win over Connecticut on Tuesday. Satou Sabally had 23 points despite being questionable for personal reasons before the game.
- Caitlin Clark remains sidelined until at least August 12 due to a groin injury. That will make Mitchell’s role in the offense bigger again in this game.
- DeWanna Bonner will face the team she started this season with. Bonner had 18 points for the Mercury against Connecticut on Tuesday.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
Indiana won the first game of the season series between these teams. They beat Phoenix 107-101 in Indianapolis in late July.
The Fever have gone 5-1 straight up and against the spread over their last six games. The Mercury are 3-2 straight up and against the spread over their last five games. Phoenix has won two games in a row coming into this inter-conference matchup in the WNBA.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Mercury are sixth in the WNBA in offensive rating. Indiana is fourth in the league in that category.
- Phoenix is fourth in the league in defensive rating. Indiana has the eighth-best defense in the W.
- Both teams are in the top four in the WNBA in pace. Phoenix is third in pace and Indiana ranks fourth in that department.
- Key matchup: The Phoenix defense will have its hands full with Kelsey Mitchell in this game and Mitchell’s usage should be sky-high with Clark out.
Fever vs Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana Fever 87 – Phoenix Mercury 94
Win Probability: Indiana 34%, Phoenix 66%
Final Thoughts
I think we will see another high-scoring game between the Fever and Mercury on Thursday night. The result should be different than the one we saw in Indianapolis on July 30. Phoenix will do just enough defensively to win this game and I think they will cover the spread with Sabally back on the floor for them.
