The Indiana Fever head to Barclays Center to face the New York Liberty on Tuesday night. The Liberty have won two of the first three meetings between these teams this season. Indiana will look to even the season series in their final regular-season meeting of 2025. Here, I break down this Eastern Conference WNBA matchup and give you my Fever vs Liberty prediction.
Our Fever vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: New York Liberty −10
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: July 22, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Broadcast: ESPN
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fever | +10 | +410 | 165.5 |
| Liberty | −10 | −550 |
Key Storylines
- Jonquel Jones situation: Jonquel Jones has missed eight games with an ankle injury. But the reigning Finals MVP could rejoin the Liberty for this game. That would greatly change the ceiling for this Liberty team.
- Caitlin Clark status: Caitlin Clark is also dealing with a significant injury. She is questionable with a groin ailment and her status will have an impact on this game’s outcome as well.
- Home court advantage: New York is 10‑2 at Barclays this season. Indiana is just 5‑5 on the road.
- Playoff picture: Indiana is just 1.5 games clear in the race for a playoff spot in the WNBA. The Liberty are in second place in the league and looking for wins to strengthen their seeding situation.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- New York has won two of the three games between these teams this season.
- The Liberty won the lone game between these teams in New York this season by a 98-77 margin.
- The Liberty are 9-11-1 against the spread this year. Indiana is 11-12 against the number.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | Over 19.5 PTS | Stewart is averaging 19.7 PPG. With Jones back, the spacing will improve for New York on offense. |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Over 18.5 PTS | Caitlin Clark is questionable for this game. Mitchell’s usage could skyrocket if she’s out once again. |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Over 5.5 AST | The Liberty will convert more chances at the rim if Jones returns. That could mean more assists for Ionescu. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Liberty lead the league in offensive rating and are second in defensive rating.
- Indiana is third in the league in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating.
- Pace: The Liberty play with the fastest pace in the league. Indiana is eighth in pace.
- Mismatch to watch: The Liberty’s guards should have a field day with the suspect defense on the perimeter for Indiana.
Fever vs Liberty Model Projection
Score Projection: Liberty 92 – Fever 79
Win Probability: Liberty 75%, Fever 25%
Final Thoughts
You may want to wait until we know the status of Jonquel Jones and Caitlin Clark before betting on this game. But if you are betting this game, I recommend laying the points with the Liberty. The Liberty have been dominant at home this year and that should remain the case here. I expect big games for Natasha Cloud and Ionescu offensively and for New York to start the second half of their season on the right foot.
