The Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream will meet in a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday to decide who advances out of the first round of the WNBA Playoffs. Atlanta took Game 1 on its home court but fell flat in Game 2 as Indiana dominated at home to even the series. The Dream enter Game 3 as the favorites on their home floor. Who will advance to the semifinals? Continue reading to get my Fever vs Dream Game 3 prediction from Atlanta.
Our Fever vs Dream Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Dream -7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Fever @ Atlanta Dream
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Fever vs Dream Game 3 Odds
| Odds Type | Spread | Moneyline | Total Points (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dream | -7.5 | -350 | 154.5 |
| Fever | +7.5 | +280 |
Key Storylines
- These teams split the first two games of this series with the home team winning each game. Both games in this series have been decided by double-digits and Atlanta is a heavy favorite to win at home in this winner-take-all contest.
- Indiana’s star Caitlin Clark remains out for the rest of the season due to injury, meaning the Fever continue without their top offensive option. Other key absences for Indiana include Damiris Dantas, Chloe Bibby, Sydney Colson, Aari McDonald, and Sophie Cunningham.
- Momentum shifted in Game 2 of this series. Indiana looked sharp at home, executing defense well and getting strong performances from Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, and Natasha Howard. Atlanta struggled offensively and were held to 37.9% shooting overall. Game 2 was a confidence-builder for Indiana.
- The stakes couldn’t be higher going into Game 3. The winner advances to the WNBA semifinals and the loser will go home.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- In the regular season, the Fever and Dream split their series 2-2. They are tied 3-3 between the regular season series and playoffs.
- Atlanta is 17-6 at home between the regular season and postseason.
- Indiana is 11-12 on the road overall.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell (IND) | Points: Over 19.5 |
| Allisha Gray (ATL) | Points: Over 16.5 |
| Aliyah Boston (IND) | Rebounds: Over 8.5 |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Efficiency: Indiana’s defense was significantly better in Game 2, holding the Dream to under 40% shooting. They pressured the ball, contested without fouling, and forced uncomfortable looks. Atlanta was less sharp offensively than usual.
- Pace of play: This series has had the second-fastest pace of the four WNBA playoff series so far. That could offset the nerves of a Game 3 when considering the total.
Fever vs Dream Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana Fever 70 – Atlanta Dream 83
Win Probability: Indiana Fever 35%, Atlanta Dream 65%
Final Thoughts
I think we will see the trend of home teams dominating in this series continue in Game 3. The Dream are healthier and have a huge depth advantage on the perimeter. The Dream should win this contest, cover the spread, and advance to the next round to face either the Aces or Storm.
