The Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream will play on Sunday in Game 1 of their first-round series in the 2025 WNBA Playoffs. Atlanta enters as the favorite thanks to their strong home record and nearly full health. Indiana faces a massive challenge in this series opener without several key players. Game 1 will set the tone in this best‐of‐three series. Bettors can keep reading to get my Fever vs Dream Game 1 prediction.
Our Fever vs Dream Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Dream ‐7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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4.8/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Fever @ Atlanta Dream
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
- Broadcast: ABC
Fever vs Dream Game 1 Odds
| Bet Type | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Dream –7.5 |
| Moneyline | Dream –310, Fever +250 |
| Total (Over/Under) | 159 |
Key Storylines
- Injuries & availability: Indiana is severely shorthanded heading into the playoffs. Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson, and Chloe Bibby are all out for the season. This has decimated Indiana’s guard depth and playmaking options. Atlanta is much healthier entering the postseason, giving them another clear advantage.
- Momentum & form: The Dream come into the playoffs as the third seed and riding a wave of momentum. They have won their final six regular season contests leading up to the postseason. Their offense has improved this year, especially since Naz Hillmon entered the starting lineup in place of Brittney Griner. Atlanta has shown it can score and defend consistently down the stretch of games. Indiana has played well enough to make the playoffs but has lacked consistency, especially since injuries made things tougher for them.
- Home‐court importance: Game 1 is in Atlanta, where the Dream are 16-6 this season. Atlanta has a golden opportunity to set the tone for this series at home.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Season meetings: The regular season series between Indiana and Atlanta ended in a 2‐2 split. Each team won a road game against the other during the regular season.
- ATS (Against The Spread) & O/U record: Atlanta went 28-15-1 against the spread this year and 20-22-2 on over/unders. Indiana was 23-21 ATS and 21-23 on over/unders.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Allisha Gray (ATL) | Over 16.5 points |
| Kelsey Mitchell (IND) | Over 22.5 points + assists |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive vs defensive efficiency: Atlanta is second in the WNBA in offensive rating and defensive rating. Indiana is third in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating.
- Pace of play: Indiana ranks fifth in the league in pace. The Dream are 12th out of 13 WNBA teams in that category.
Fever vs Dream Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana Fever 74 – Atlanta Dream 87
Win Probability: Indiana Fever 34%, Atlanta Dream 66%
Final Thoughts
If the Indiana Fever were healthy, they would be a thorn in the side of the Dream in this series. But the Fever are so depleted at the guard spots that I am not convinced Indiana can hang around in their postseason opener. I’ll lay the points with Atlanta at home to begin their postseason with a double-digit win.
