The Phoenix Mercury and Golden State Valkyries will face off on Friday night in Phoenix. Both of these teams are in the top eight in the WNBA standings and will look for an important win for their potential playoff seeding. Before this Western Conference matchup in the W, continue reading to get my Valkyries vs Mercury prediction from The Valley.
Our Valkyries vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries +6.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Golden State Valkyries @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: August 22, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ION
Valkyries vs Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -6.5 | Mercury -285 / Valkyries +230 | 155.5 |
Key Storylines
- Golden State seeks redemption after falling to Phoenix 98-91 on August 19. Veronica Burton was spectacular in the loss for the Valkyries. She had 24 points and 14 assists with no turnovers.
- The Mercury are on the second night of a back-to-back here. They lost on the road to the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday. There is no shame in losing to an Aces team that has won nine games in a row. But the Mercury will have to regroup in a hurry for this contest.
- Kahleah Copper suffered an injury during the game against the Aces. The Mercury star will need to recover from that in a hurry if she is going to play in this contest.
- Both of these teams are in a great position to make the WNBA playoffs. Phoenix is fifth in the league standings and Golden State is in seventh place. A win would be huge for the playoff aspirations of either of these teams.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Phoenix has won all three of the matchups between these teams this season.
- All three games in the season series between these teams have been decided by nine points or fewer.
- Phoenix is 18-16-1 against the spread this season.
- Golden State has the best record in the WNBA against the spread at 21-13-1.
- The Valkyries are 8-10 on the road this year.
- Phoenix is 11-6 on their home floor in 2025.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Both of these teams are in the top five in the WNBA in defensive rating.
- This is a very interesting pace matchup. The Mercury play with the second-fastest pace in the WNBA. The Valkyries play with the slowest pace in the 13-team WNBA.
- Phoenix ranks seventh in the league in offensive rating. Golden State is 10th in offensive rating.
Valkyries vs Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Golden State Valkyries 85 – Phoenix Mercury 90
Win Probability: Golden State Valkyries 30%, Phoenix Mercury 70%
Final Thoughts
I’m very interested to see how the pace of this game looks. Phoenix would typically be successful in speeding the Valkyries up and getting them out of their comfort zone. But I’m not sure they will be able to do that on the second game of a back-to-back. Here, we should see the Valkyries slow things down and cover the spread even if the Mercury should win the game straight up.
