The first game of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs will be between the Golden State Valkyries and the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday. The Valkyries are an expansion team making their postseason debut. They face a mammoth challenge on the road against the top-seeded Lynx. Can the Valkyries pull off a massive upset in Game 1? Continue reading to get my Valkyries vs Lynx Game 1 prediction.
Our Valkyries vs Lynx Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx −12.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025; 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: ESPN
Valkyries vs Lynx Game 1 Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx −12.5 | Lynx -900 / Valkyries +600 | 148 |
Key Storylines
- Regular-Season Sweep & Momentum: Minnesota won all four matchups against the Valkyries during the regular season. Three of those wins came by double digits. In the final regular‐season game, they beat Golden State 72-53. Minnesota held the Valkyries to 28.8% shooting and just 11.1% from three-point range in that game. Golden State has to shake off that ugly showing.
- Star Power & Historic Achievement: Napheesa Collier was historically efficient in the regular season. She became the first WNBA player to average over 20 PPG while shooting 50%+ from the field, 40%+ from three, and 90%+ on free throws.
- Valkyries’ Defensive Strength vs Offensive Inconsistency: Golden State has the third-best defensive rating in the league and defends the paint very well. But their offense is streaky, especially from three-point range. They will need to find consistent scoring to have a chance to pull an upset here.
- Home Court & Role of Experience: Minnesota went 20-2 at home this season and they have extensive playoff experience. Golden State is playing their first-ever postseason game as a franchise, but they have shown grit all year long.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Lynx went 4-0 in the regular season vs the Valkyries. Three of the four wins came by double-digits.
- ATS Trends: Minnesota is 25-18-1 against the spread this season. Golden State is 27-16-1 ATS in 2025.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Kayla McBride | Over 13.5 points |
| Veronica Burton | Over 17.5 points + assists |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive vs Defensive Metrics: Minnesota leads the league in offensive rating, points per game, assists, field goal efficiency, and effective field goal percentage. The Lynx are also first in the league in defensive rating. Golden State ranks third defensively but lags behind on the offensive end.
- Pace & Shooting Efficiency: Lynx have high shooting percentages, especially from three-point range. Golden State attempts a lot of threes but has a low three-point percentage as a team. Their effective field goal percentage is the worst among playoff teams. Both teams are in the bottom four in the W in pace.
Valkyries vs Lynx Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Golden State Valkyries 70 – Minnesota Lynx 86
Win Probability: Golden State Valkyries 25%, Minnesota Lynx 75%
Final Thoughts
The Minnesota Lynx should roll in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Golden State Valkyries. This is Golden State’s first playoff game as a franchise and most of their players lack the meaningful playoff experience that the Lynx possess. I will gladly lay the points with the top seed in Game 1 on their home floor.
