The Golden State Valkyries and Connecticut Sun will meet in a WNBA game for the second time ever on Sunday afternoon. The Sun have been by far the worst team in the WNBA this season. But they have a key player back on the floor and will look to pick up a win in this contest. Continue reading to get my Valkyries vs Sun prediction for their Sunday matinee matchup.
Our Valkyries vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Connecticut Sun +6.5
- Confidence: 3 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Golden State Valkyries @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: July 27, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network, WNBA League Pass
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State | -6.5 (-110) | -270 | o155.5 (-110) |
| Connecticut | +6.5 (-110) | +220 | u155.5 (-110) |
Key Storylines
The Valkyries are dealing with a major blow as All‑Star forward Kayla Thornton is out for the season following knee surgery. Thornton had led the Valkyries with 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game and was their top defender. With her gone Golden State will lean more heavily on Tiffany Hayes and Veronica Burton to carry the scoring load. The Valkyries have a ton of balance but this injury could sink their chances of making the playoffs in their first season in the W.
Connecticut enters with no injury concerns. Their roster is healthy heading into this weekend’s game against Golden State. Marina Mabrey returned after missing nine games in Connecticut’s last outing. She contributed seven points, three assists, two steals, and two rebounds in the loss to the Los Angeles Sparks. Veteran Tina Charles continues to deliver with her scoring and rebounding. But the Sun are 3-20 on the year going into this game.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
These teams met once already this season. Golden State won 87‑63 in San Francisco on June 22. But Kayla Thornton had a huge game for the Valkyries in that game and will not play here. The Sun are still searching for their first-ever win over the Valkyries.
Connecticut has covered the spread in 4 of its last 5 games despite being 3‑20 overall. Golden State is 3‑5 ATS in their last eight games. The Valkyries are a league-best 14-9 against the spread for the season.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey | Over 13.5 Points | Mabrey should take advantage of the absence of Kayla Thornton for the Valkyries. |
| Tina Charles | Over 15.5 Points | Charles is consistently a double-digit scorer for Connecticut and should have another big game here. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Sun are at the bottom of the league in offensive, defensive, and net rating.
- Golden State is 10th in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating this season.
- The first game between these teams had 150 combined points and went under the total of 153.5.
- Golden State plays with the slowest pace in the WNBA and the Sun are 10th out of 13 teams.
Valkyries vs Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Golden State 80 – Connecticut 75
Win Probability: Golden State 61%, Connecticut 39%
Final Thoughts
The Golden State Valkyries are just 3-8 on the road this season. And while the Sun are 3-20 for their whole season, I think the Sun keep this game close and cover the spread as home underdogs. Connecticut has their most dangerous perimeter player back in Mabrey and should be able to use her contributions to hang around with a team that has struggled on the road all year long.
