On Wednesday, June 11, the Dallas Wings will visit the Phoenix Mercury in a battle of Western Conference teams in the WNBA. The Mercury aim to extend their strong home stretch, while the Wings look to shake off a tough start. This Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury prediction breaks down the key angles for bettors looking for an edge in this matchup.
Our Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
- Spread: Mercury -5
- Total: Under 167.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Wednesday, June 11, 2025, 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| PHX -5 | PHX -218, DAL +180 | 167.5 |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix has been strong at home and sports a 5‑2 record in the PHX Arena, bolstered by strong defense and scoring balance.
- The Mercury got Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas into their lineup following offseason trades, providing dual coverage on both scoring and rebounding.
- Dallas remains in growth mode. They are 1‑9 overall, 1‑4 on the road, and have dropped key contributors to injuries despite adding Paige Bueckers last draft.
- Dallas’s recent concussion absence for Bueckers and continued struggles from Arike Ogunbowale hamper offensive flow, though Bueckers could return for this game after practicing on Tuesday.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first of four meetings scheduled between these teams this season.
- Dallas is 3-7 against the spread so far this season.
- Phoenix is 5-5 against the spread.
- The Wings have gone 4-6 on over/unders so far this year, while the Mercury are 4-5-1 on them.
- The Mercury are 5‑2 at PHX Arena, while Dallas is 1‑4 on the road.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Satou Sabally | First Basket | Sabally leads the Mercury at 20.5 points per game and is a strong candidate to score first. |
| Alyssa Thomas | Triple-Double | If Thomas returns from her calf injury, she is a threat to have a huge game against a bad Dallas defense. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Dallas averages 81.6 PPG on .412 FG% and allows 88.1 PPG, as they have been defensively brittle.
- Phoenix turns in 78.6 PPG while conceding just 78.1 PPG with .419 FG%.
- The Wings play faster pace but shoot poorly from distance (.319 3PT%). Phoenix plays a slower tempo but is good at getting out and running on turnovers.
- Key mismatch: Sabally/Thomas versus Wings’ weak frontcourt, advantage Mercury in paint control.
Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Model Prediction
Score Projection: Phoenix 88 – Dallas 76
Win Probability: Phoenix 72%, Dallas 28%
Final Thoughts
Phoenix owns the home advantage, superior roster depth, and better form, while Dallas is still finding its identity and health. The sharpest betting angle lies in taking Phoenix with the spread and fading an underperforming Wings offense. The under should come in too, given both teams’ potential to struggle offensively.
