The Dallas Wings and Phoenix Mercury will face off on Monday, July 7 in Phoenix. While Dallas has struggled for most of this season, they are showing signs of life of late. Will that trend continue, or will the Mercury bounce back with a win of their own? Continue reading to get my Wings vs Mercury prediction for Sunday.
Our Wings vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -11
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Wings @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Monday, July 7, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| PHX -11 | PHX -625, DAL +455 | 170 |
Key Storylines
- Momentum In Dallas: The Wings enter at 6–13, and they have won three of their last four games. That includes a win at home over the Mercury and they will look to win a second straight game against the Mercury here.
- Phoenix Slumping: At 12–6, the Mercury are in the hunt for one of the top spots in the WNBA playoffs. But they have lost two games in a row, losing to the Las Vegas Aces and the Wings on Thursday.
- Injury check: Dallas is down Ty Harris for the season and DiJonai Carrington is out as well. Arike Ogunbowale is questionable for Dallas going into this contest. Meanwhile, the Mercury are without Lexi Held.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- In their last showdown, Dallas pulled off a 98–89 win on July 3. Phoenix won the first game of the season series, winning 93-80 at home.
- The Mercury are 10-8 against the spread this season, while the Wings are 9-10 ATS for the year.
- Phoenix is 10-7-1 to the over so far this year, while Dallas is 10-9 to the over for the year.
- Phoenix is 7-3 at home on the season, while Dallas is 2-7 on the road for the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Rating: Phoenix ranks fifth in offensive rating, while Dallas is seventh in that category.
- Defensive Efficiency: Phoenix is fifth in defensive rating, and the Wings are 10th.
- Pace of Play: The Mercury ranks second in pace, while the Wings are eighth in tempo.
- Mismatch to exploit: The Wings lack frontcourt depth, which could cause major problems against the duo of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas for the Mercury.
Wings vs Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Dallas Wings 82 – Phoenix Mercury 96
Win Probability: Dallas Wings 22%, Phoenix Mercury 78%
Final Thoughts
The Mercury have fewer injuries and home-court advantage. They should have no problem getting revenge on the Wings for their game just a few days ago. Look for them to win and cover the number in what should be a dominant showing from the Mercury. I recommend laying the points confidently with Phoenix on Monday night.
