Friday night’s game between the Dallas Wings and the Connecticut Sun features two teams that are struggling in the WNBA in 2025. Both teams sit at the bottom of their respective conferences, but one team has to come out of Mohegan Sun Arena with a win. Continue reading to find out who I think that team will be in my Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun prediction.
Our Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun Pick
- Spread: Sun +4
- Total: Over 165.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Sportsbook Bonus of the Game: Sportzino no deposit bonus – Get up to 10 sweepstakes coins instantly!
& Sweepstakes Casino
& Sweepstakes Casino
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: Friday, June 20, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: ION
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DAL -4 | DAL -185 / CONN +154 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
- Injury Impact: Dallas is without Tyasha Harris and Maddy Siegrist due to injuries, while Teaira McCowan is out at Eurobasket. Connecticut is missing Leïla Lacan.
- Offensive Form: The Wings are much better offensively so far this season, but these teams both struggle on defense and that could lead to volatility in either direction.
- Sun’s Season: Sitting at 2-10, Connecticut enters this game on a four-game losing streak.
- Wings’ Season: Dallas is 2-11 on the year, but they did win their most recent game against the Golden State Valkyries.
- Home Court: Connecticut is just 1-5 at home this season, while Dallas is 1-6 on the road. Something has to give in this matchup.
- Bueckers’ Homecoming: Paige Bueckers will make her second professional appearance in Connecticut this season after her decorated career at UConn. She scored 21 points against the Sun in their first meeting this year.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Dallas won the first game of the season series between these teams, beating the Sun 109-87 in Connecticut on May 27.
- Both teams are below .500 against the spread this season, with Connecticut at 5-7 and Dallas at 5-8 against the number.
- Both teams have seen the majority of their games stay under the total this season. Connecticut is 5-6-1 on totals, while Dallas is 6-7.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Metrics: Dallas ranks sixth in the WNBA in offensive rating, while the Sun are dead last in the league in that department.
- Defensive Metrics: Both of these teams are in the bottom three in the W in defensive rating, with the Wings in 11th place and the Sun in 13th, the worst in the league.
- Pace: These teams play on opposite ends of the pace spectrum, with Dallas ranking second in pace and the Sun ranking 12th.
- Potential Mismatches: Dallas’ backcourt led by Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale should have a good night thanks to the Sun’s lack of consistent perimeter defense. The Sun’s front court edge with Tina Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa should give them an edge against the Wings’ thin front line.
Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Dallas Wings 88 – Connecticut Sun 87
Win Probability: Dallas 55%, Connecticut 45%
Final Thoughts
This game has all the ingredients for a close, high-scoring affair. Dallas’ offense led by Bueckers could very well be enough to get them a second win in Connecticut this season. But it would be very brave to think that either of these teams can string together a solid 40 minutes to run away with this one. We’ll take the points and expect a close game in either direction.
