The Connecticut Sun and Seattle Storm will play for the second game in a row on Friday night. Connecticut upset the Storm in Connecticut on Wednesday and will look for another shocking result here. But the Storm will have revenge on their minds going into this contest. Here, I break down this inter-conference WNBA matchup and make my Sun vs Storm prediction for Friday night in the Pacific Northwest.
Our Sun vs Storm Pick
- Pick: Seattle Storm -16.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Seattle Storm
- Date & Time: Friday, July 11, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
- Broadcast: ION
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Storm –16.5 | Storm –2100 / Sun +1100 | 158.5 |
Key Storylines
- Connecticut’s momentum: The Sun halted a franchise-worst 10-game losing streak by defeating Seattle 93–83 on Wednesday. Tina Charles led all scorers with 29 points in that game.
- Marina Mabrey remains sidelined: Mabrey is still out with a knee injury for the Sun. The Sun have suffered offensively in her absence.
- Connecticut’s rough season: Connecticut did upset the Storm on Wednesday. But they have been by far the worst team in the WNBA. Connecticut is 3-16 on the year and expected to become the first team to 20 losses in this game.
- Missing pieces: Seattle plays without Katie Lou Samuelson and Nika Muhl to season-ending ACL injuries.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- These teams have split their season series 1-1 so far thanks to the Sun’s win on Wednesday.
- The Sun are 8-11 against the spread this year. The Storm are 11-9 ATS.
- Seattle is 12-8 on over/unders this season. The Sun are 9-9-1 on their totals.
- Connecticut is 1-9 on the road this year. The Storm are 6-3 on their home floor.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Efficiency: The Storm are 6th in the league in offensive rating. Connecticut ranks last in the 13-team WNBA.
- Defensive Rating: The Storm are 8th in defensive rating. Connecticut is last in the league in that category.
- Pace: Both squads are in the bottom half of the W in pace. That is great news for under bettors.
- Mismatches: Seattle’s frontcourt outmuscles Connecticut’s. Nneka Ogwumike could have a field day against the older Tina Charles.
Sun vs Storm Model Projection
Score Projection: Connecticut 78 – Seattle 100
Win Probability: Connecticut 12%, Seattle 88%
Final Thoughts
This game has revenge written all over it. The Storm are back at home and aren’t contending with a camp day crowd in Connecticut any longer. I expect the Storm to bounce back from their loss with a blowout win here. Lay the points with the Sun, as they should win this game by a comfortable margin at home to give Connecticut their 20th loss in 2025.
