Emotions will run high when the Connecticut Sun visit the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday night in Phoenix. Former Sun greats Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner will face their former team in a reunion in which the Mercury are heavy favorites. Before this inter-conference matchup in the WNBA, continue reading to get my Sun vs Mercury prediction.
Our Sun vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Connecticut Sun +14.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Use BetMGM bonus code ATSBONUS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet doesn’t win!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: August 5, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Sun vs Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -14.5 | Sun +700 / Mercury –1100 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
- Connecticut has the worst record in the WNBA at 5-22. They are 1-11 on the road for the season and will hope to just be competitive in this road game.
- The Phoenix Mercury sit at 17‑11 overall and are 9‑4 at home. They could be without Satou Sabally for this game due to personal reasons.
- The reunion between Thomas, Bonner, and the Sun will be a fun subplot in this game. Both players had great careers in Connecticut but will show them no mercy in this game.
- Tina Charles leads Connecticut with 16.1 PPG and 5.8 RPG. She continues to defy Father Time and will look to have another big game in this matchup.
- Phoenix is fighting to stay in the top four in the WNBA standings given that the top four seeds get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
Phoenix is 1-0 against the Sun this season. They won 83-75 in Connecticut on June 18. Connecticut covered the spread in that game as a double-digit underdog. The Sun will look to put Phoenix on upset alert in this contest.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
The Sun rank last in the WNBA in offensive rating and net rating. But they have moved ahead of the Chicago Sky in defensive rating. Connecticut now ranks 12th out of 13 WNBA teams in defensive rating. Phoenix is sixth in the league in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. The Mercury have not been spectacular in any one area but they are consistently above-average and that has made them a fringe title contender.
Sun vs Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Connecticut Sun 76 – Phoenix Mercury 86
Win Probability: Sun 20%, Mercury 80%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think there is much doubt as to which team is going to win this game. The Phoenix Mercury are by far the better team and Phoenix will win this game at home. But I don’t know if the Mercury will be able to cover this huge point spread. Sabally’s absence and the fact that the Mercury could overlook their opponent may allow the Sun to hang around in this game. I’ll take the points with the Sun and hope that they can at least keep this game respectable at PHX Arena.
