Sunday’s Commissioner’s Cup matinee in Brooklyn asks a simple question: can a Connecticut team that just broke into the win column derail the New York buzz-saw that has rolled to a perfect start? The early answer from oddsmakers is “probably not,” but numbers never tell the whole story. Let’s dig into form, injuries, and the other angles that matter before Sun vs Liberty at Barclays Center.
Sun vs Liberty Game Preview
New York enters at 6-0 after Friday’s 85-63 dismantling of the Washington Mystics that featured 28 points from Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones’ 14-point, 18-rebound double-double. The Liberty now lead the league in scoring at 90.5 points per night and pace the WNBA in field-goal accuracy at 46.7%. The Liberty will look to continue rolling offensively on Sunday against a Sun team that has struggled mightily on the defensive end of the floor this season.
Connecticut’s story is almost the inverse from that of New York. A franchise-wide reset saw every 2024 starter depart, and the rebuild opened with five straight losses in which the Sun averaged just 71.8 points. Friday finally brought relief, as Tina Charles (17.2 points per game on the year) powered an 84-81 win over the Fever in Indianapolis that pushed the Sun to 1-5. Second-year wing Jacy Sheldon has flashed two-way promise, but the backcourt still struggles to generate clean looks, which could continue against an elite opponent here.
The contrast between these teams is stark:
- Pace and paint control. New York is top three in pace-adjusted offensive possessions. Jones and Stewart dominate the glass with their size, fueling quick hit-ahead passes that help New York shoot the three very effectively.
- Late-game options. The Liberty have so many players who can win individual matchups, while the Sun are almost forced to go to Charles and Marina Mabrey late in close games.
Betting Insights
Books opened this Commissioner’s Cup game with New York laying 18 points and a total of 162.5. That is a similar number to what the Liberty laid in their games against the expansion Golden State Valkyries, which speaks to where Connecticut is as a franchise right now.
- Against the spread. The Liberty are 4-2 ATS through six, while the Sun are 2-4 ATS.
- Totals trends. New York has played to three unders and three overs so far this year, the same record as Connecticut in that department.
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Sun vs Liberty Prediction
Connecticut’s collective effort on defense is real, but their offensive limitations are just as real, and asking a group that ranks last in turnover creation to slow down a Liberty attack running through a fully healthy group is a tall order. New York’s ability to stretch the floor with four shooters drags Charles away from the paint, neutralizing the Sun’s best interior weapon. On the other end, the Liberty can live with Charles’ mid-range touches as long as the Sun’s secondary scorers remain below league average from three.
Best Bet: Sun +18. The talent gap, home-court shooting splits, and Connecticut’s turnover woes point to a double-digit margin. But we think the Sun stay just inside the number, as the Liberty will be able to take their foot off the gas down the stretch. Final score projection: Liberty 88, Sun 71.
