The Connecticut Sun have gone from a playoff contender to the laughingstock of the WNBA at warp speed. And things aren’t expected to get any easier for the Sun on Sunday as they take on the top team in the WNBA, the Minnesota Lynx. Here, we take a look at the biggest mismatch of the 2025 WNBA season and I give you my Sun vs Lynx prediction before they face off on Sunday.
Our Sun vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -19.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 29, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx -19.5 | Lynx –4000, Sun +1600 | 155 |
Key Storylines
- Sun injuries and form: Connecticut has lost eight straight, sitting at 2‑12. Marina Mabrey is out with a knee issue, hobbling their already abysmal offense.
- Rising rookies: Aneesah Morrow has seen more run and shown promise amid the Sun’s struggles.
- Lynx health update: MVP favorite Napheesa Collier returned from injury to help the Lynx beat the Atlanta Dream on Friday.
- Commissioner’s Cup looming: The Lynx will host Indiana in the Commissioner’s Cup Final on July 1. As long as the Lynx avoid overlooking the Sun with that game coming up, they should win big here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- In their regular-season series, Minnesota is 1–0 and beat Connecticut 76–70 on May 23 at Target Center.
- Against the spread, Connecticut is 7-9 this year and the Lynx are 8-7.
- Minnesota has gone 9-6 to the under in 2025 and the Sun are 7-8-1 to the under.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive rating: Minnesota is third in the league in offensive rating, Connecticut is last.
- Defensive rating: Lynx lead the league in defensive rating, Sun rank last.
- Pace: The Sun are 11th in the league in pace, Minnesota is 12th. Expect this game to be played at a snail’s pace.
- Potential Mismatch: Unless Tina Charles finds a way to turn back the clock defensively, Napheesa Collier could have a huge game for the Lynx.
Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx Model Projection
Score Projection: Connecticut 72 – Minnesota 94
Win Probability: Lynx 82%, Sun 18%
Final Thoughts
The Lynx enter on a clear upward trajectory, with depth, home court, and efficiency advantages. Connecticut remains depleted and inconsistent, especially without Mabrey. Unless the Lynx decide to rest some of their key players before the Commissioner’s Cup final, we should see Minnesota come away with a blowout win over a Sun team that is on its way to one of the worst seasons I’ve ever seen in the W.
