The Connecticut Sun head to Las Vegas on Wednesday, June 25, eyeing a rebound against the Aces after an 87–62 defeat the last time the teams met. Both teams have taken steps back from where they were a season ago and will look to this game as a potential turning point. Here, I break down this inter-conference matchup in the WNBA and bring you my Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces prediction.
Our Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces Pick
- Spread: Aces -15.5
- Total: Under 160
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Wednesday, June 25, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: NBA TV / WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aces −15.5 | Aces −1800 / Sun +880 | 160 |
Key Storylines
- The Aces snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the Indiana Fever on Sunday and they will look to beat arguably the worst team in the league to get a second straight victory here.
- A’ja Wilson is averaging 21.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.6 blocks, and 1.9 steals per game in what has been another phenomenal season from her. But she needs help from her supporting cast for the Aces to get back to the .500 mark for the year.
- Connecticut remains a mess, sitting at just 2–12, and has dropped six games in a row entering this contest.
- Marina Mabrey is listed as day-to-day for the Sun. It would be devastating to an already struggling team to be without their top perimeter contributor if Mabrey misses this game.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Las Vegas won the May 20 meeting between these teams by an 87–62 margin and lead the season series 1–0.
- The Aces are a disappointing 4-9 against the spread this season, while Connecticut is 6-8 ATS.
- Las Vegas is 7-6 to the over in their games this season, Connecticut is 7-6 to the under.
- Connecticut has lost three of its last five games by double-digits.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: The Aces are a disappointing 9th in the WNBA in offensive rating, while the Sun rank last.
- Defense: The Aces are also 9th in defensive rating, while the Sun are again last in that category.
- Pace: Venetian-style pace suits Las Vegas, as they play at the league’s fifth-fastest tempo, while Connecticut sits in 12th out of 13 teams.
- Potential mismatch: Connecticut lacks the size to contain Wilson, and their weak perimeter defenders will have trouble dampening Las Vegas’s backcourt.
Connecticut Sun vs Las Vegas Aces Model Projection
- Score Projection: Sun 68 – Aces 85
- Win Probability: Sun 12%, Aces 88%
Final Thoughts
The Aces are clearly superior in form, talent, and home-court advantage. Connecticut’s collapse in the first meeting exposed a gap unlikely to close overnight. Expect Las Vegas to dominate inside, dictate tempo, and coast to a double-digit win. Take the Aces to cover and for the game to remain under 160 points in what should be a one-sided contest in Vegas.
