The Las Vegas Aces have had their way with the Connecticut Sun this season. Vegas will look to complete a four-game regular season sweep of Connecticut with a win at home on Sunday night. The Aces are playing for playoff positioning and the Sun are playing for pride. Here, I break down this inter-conference matchup in the WNBA and make my Sun vs Aces prediction from a betting perspective.
Our Sun vs Aces Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces −12.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: August 10, 2025, 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Sun vs Aces Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aces −12.5 | Aces -900 / Sun +600 | 167 |
Key Storylines
The Aces are entering this game riding a three-game win streak and with a solid 17-14 overall record. Their most recent win came at home against the Seattle Storm. That win moved the Aces ahead of the Storm by a game in the standings and put the Aces in sixth place. Las Vegas will look to continue their winning ways to have a chance to continue moving up in the standings.
The Connecticut Sun are struggling this season with a 5-24 record and a dreadful 1-13 record on the road. Tina Charles is leading the scoring efforts for Connecticut with 16.2 PPG. But Charles has not had nearly enough help to be a competitive basketball team this year. Connecticut has lost three games in a row and they are not expected to end that losing streak here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Las Vegas owns the season series against the Sun. Vegas is 3-0 against Connecticut with the following margins of victory:
- 87-62 (May 20)
- 85-59 (June 25)
- 86-68 (July 6)
The Sun have failed to cover in any of those blowout losses. Both of these teams are below .500 against the spread for the season but the Aces have shown that they are clearly better than the Sun so far this year.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 21.5 points | Wilson has scored 22 points in two of her three games against the Sun this season. |
| Jackie Young | Over 1.5 Threes | Young has hit 2+ threes in two of her last three games for the Aces. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
The Sun rank at the bottom of the WNBA in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating. They are having a historically bad season. The Aces are in the middle of the pack in all three of those statistical categories. But Las Vegas looks like an all-time great team when compared to this Connecticut squad.
Sun vs Aces Model Projection
Score Projection: Connecticut Sun 73 – Las Vegas Aces 88
Win Probability: Connecticut Sun 16%, Las Vegas Aces 84%
Final Thoughts
As long as A’ja Wilson and the rest of the stars for the Aces suit up for this game, I expect them to win big against the Sun once again. Connecticut just doesn’t stack up against this Aces team, as Charles and the rest of the Sun frontcourt has struggled to guard Wilson. Expect the Aces to complete the season sweep of the Sun and to cover the spread in the process.
