The Indiana Fever host the winless Connecticut Sun on Friday night at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, and the stakes are higher than a typical early-season meeting for both clubs. Indiana enters at 2-3 after dropping its first outing without Caitlin Clark. Even with Clark sidelined, sportsbooks opened the Fever as double-digit favorites, underscoring just how rough the start has been for a Sun group still searching for cohesion. Connecticut is 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread, carrying the WNBA’s lowest scoring average. Something has to give in this Sun vs Fever contest. Either the Fever prove they can produce without their star conductor, or the Sun finally break through before their season slips further away.
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Sun vs Fever Preview
Indiana’s offense has hummed at 85.8 points per game through five outings, third in the league, but that average is heavily boosted by Clark’s 19 points and 9.3 assists per night. In Wednesday’s 83-77 loss to Washington, the Fever mustered just 77 points while shooting 39.7% from the field, and their pace noticeably slowed without Clark pushing in transition.
Coach Stephanie White turned the keys over to veteran scorers Kelsey Mitchell (17.0 PPG) and Aliyah Boston (16.8 PPG, 62.5% shooting), and both will have to shoulder even more of the creation load again. Boston, in particular, draws a favorable interior matchup, as Connecticut ranks near the bottom of the league in rebounding, grabbing 33.6 boards per game.
Connecticut’s problems begin at the offensive end. The Sun average only 71.8 points and shoot 39.0% overall, figures that explain their -16.4 average point differential. Tina Charles has been the lone bright spot, putting up 17.0 points and 6.6 rebounds, while offseason addition Marina Mabrey contributes 14.2 points but just 3.2 assists to lead a team for whom ball distribution has been an issue.
Defensive lapses have been just as glaring for the Sun. Opponents are scoring 88.2 points and hitting 46.1% of their attempts, both in the bottom third of the league. A trip to face a Fever side that averages more than 30 defensive rebounds per game threatens to extend those woes unless the Sun find outside shooting quickly, as they are hitting only 5.6 threes per outing.
Betting Insights
- Opening line: Indiana -10.5, Connecticut +10.5 (Sun +425 moneyline, Fever -600).
- Total: 163.5 points.
- Against the spread: Fever 3-2 season-to-date; Sun 1-4.
- Totals record: Indiana overs 2-3; Connecticut overs 2-3.
- Key injury notes: Clark out until at least June 10; Lindsay Allen questionable for Connecticut.
The double-digit spread reflects Connecticut’s historically slow start rather than Indiana’s current roster looking particularly impressive. Market makers appear skeptical that the Sun can generate enough points to keep pace, yet the total suggests bookmakers expect a faster game than Wednesday’s Fever-Mystics grinder.
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Sun vs Fever Prediction
Clark’s absence shifts Indiana’s playbook. White leaned on half-court sets built around Boston’s post touches and Mitchell’s pull-ups against Washington, trimming possessions and lowering variance. Expect a similar template on Friday. Boston draws Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa on the block. She has a strength and efficiency edge that should yield reliable looks and early trips to the foul line. At the other end, Connecticut’s half-court execution remains disjointed. Mabrey has just 3.2 assists and 3.0 turnovers per game, and the Sun own the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the league. Unless their three-point volume spikes, long cold spells seem inevitable.
Indiana does not need to light up the scoreboard to cover. A projected score in the low 160s might have been viable with Clark running the show, but the absence of her playmaking will continue to cause problems for the Indiana offense. The Fever also played solid half-court defense Wednesday, limiting Washington to 39.7% shooting despite the loss. If they can dictate pace once again, the total looks inflated. The Sun will compete on the glass, but their poor spacing and shaky ball security invite turnovers that should offset any interior edge.
Best Bet: Under 163.5. Without Clark’s transition push and with Connecticut languishing near the bottom of the W in shooting, a grinder in the 150–155 point range is the most likely outcome. For those hunting a side, lean Connecticut +10.5, but the total is the cleaner avenue. Projected score: Fever 82, Sun 74.
