The Phoenix Mercury will host the Chicago Sky in the WNBA on Thursday night. The Mercury are chasing better playoff seeding with a win over a Sky team that has already been knocked out of playoff contention. Before this inter-conference matchup begins from Phoenix, continue reading to get my Sky vs Mercury prediction.
Sky vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -12.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 28, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Sky vs Mercury Odds
| Market | Chicago Sky | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +12.5 | -12.5 |
| Moneyline | +550 | -900 |
| Total | Over 164.5 | Under 164.5 |
Key Storylines
- Chicago Sky: The Sky enter this game with a 9–28 record and have been eliminated from postseason contention. They are 2–8 in their last 10 games. That includes two straight home losses to the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun. Chicago has Angel Reese back on the floor late in the regular season but they don’t have much else going for them.
- Phoenix Mercury: The Mercury have a 23–14 record and are in fourth place in the WNBA standings going into tonight’s game. The Mercury have won two straight games over the Golden State Valkyries and LA Sparks. They will aim to continue their winning streak behind Alyssa Thomas. Thomas has seven triple-doubles on the season and is impacting winning in several ways for the Mercury.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past Meetings: The Mercury have won the last three matchups against the Sky this season. The last two of those wins have come by double-digits.
- ATS Records: The Mercury are 20-16-1 against the spread for the season. The Sky are 16-21 against the spread in 2025.
- O/U Records: The Mercury are 16-19-2 on over/unders for the season. Chicago is 19-17-1 to the over for the year.
- Home/Road Splits: The Mercury have a 12-6 home record in 2025. The Sky have struggled on the road at 4-13.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Metrics: The Mercury are seventh in the WNBA in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. Chicago is 12th out of 13 teams in offensive rating and 13th in defensive rating.
- Pace of Play: The Mercury play at a faster pace than the Sky. Phoenix is fourth in the WNBA in pace and the Sky rank 10th in the W.
Sky vs Mercury Model Projection
- Score Projection: Chicago Sky 78 – Phoenix Mercury 92
- Win Probability: Chicago Sky 15%, Phoenix Mercury 85%
Final Thoughts
I think we will see a lopsided game when the Mercury and Sky face off on Thursday night. Phoenix is in fine form and they are fighting for playoff positioning. They should be focused and able to win a third straight game over the Sky by double-digits. I’ll lay the points with Phoenix in this huge game from PHX Arena.
