Tuesday night is the first night back for the WNBA after the All-Star break. One of five games on the schedule for that night is the matchup between the Minnesota Lynx and Chicago Sky. The Lynx have won two of the three games between these teams this season. Before they play for the final time this regular season, you can continue reading to get my Sky vs Lynx prediction for Tuesday night.
Our Sky vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Chicago Sky +12.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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✓ Free to Play MLB Game
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Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Sky @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 22, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: ESPN3
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx | −12.5 (-110) | -675 | 163.5 |
| Sky | +12.5 (-110) | +490 |
Key Storylines
- Second Half Starts: This is the first game of the second half of the season for both teams. It will be interesting to see how they look after some much-needed time off.
- Playoff Stakes: The Lynx have the best record in the WNBA so far this year and are playing for playoff seeding. The Sky are in 11th place out of 13 teams but still have time to make up ground to steal a playoff berth.
- All-Star Fatigue?: Lynx players Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman did a 72-hour live stream during All-Star weekend. Will they be tired from a lack of sleep? This will be an entertaining subplot in this game.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Recent meetings: Minnesota leads the season series 2–1. Home teams are 2-1 in the three games between these teams in 2025.
- ATS record: The Lynx are 14–10 ATS. The Sky are 12–10 ATS and have been underdogs in the majority of their games.
- O/U trends: The Lynx have gone under the total in 13 of their 24 games. The Sky have gone over the total 12 times in 22 games.
- Home dominance: The Lynx are 12-0 at home this season. They did lose the Commissioner’s Cup final at home. But that game does not count toward the regular season standings.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Napheesa Collier | Over 21.5 points | Collier leads her team with 23.2 PPG. She should be able to drag the bigs of the Sky away from the paint. |
| Courtney Williams | Under 6.5 assists | We might not see the best of Williams after her stunt on All-Star weekend. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense vs. Defense: The Lynx are second in the league in offensive rating and first in defensive rating. The Sky are 11th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating.
- Pace: Both teams are in the middle of the pack in pace this season. Pace should not skew the total too far in either direction.
- Mismatch alert: The Sky have no answer for Collier’s versatility going into this game.
Sky vs Lynx Model Projection
- Score Projection: Minnesota 82 – Chicago 75
- Win Probability: Minnesota 86%, Chicago 14%
Final Thoughts
I expect the Lynx to win this game pretty comfortably at home to start the second half of their season. But I don’t think they do enough to win this game by double-digits. I expect the Lynx to keep this one around eight points for the majority of the game, and for the Sky to cover the spread when all is said and done.
