Wednesday night brings a showdown between two elite scorers as the Phoenix Mercury welcome the Atlanta Dream to PHX Arena. Satou Sabally and Allisha Gray have led their teams to successful seasons so far this year. They will look to lead their teams to a win in this potential playoff preview. Continue reading to get our Mercury vs Dream prediction for Wednesday night out West.
Our Dream vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: July 23, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: CBSSN, Peachtree TV, Merc+
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream | +7.5 (-110) | +260 | 163.5 |
| Phoenix Mercury | –7.5 (–110) | -325 |
Key Storylines
- The Mercury are starting the second half of their season tonight. Atlanta did so last night and are on the second night of a back-to-back here. The Dream got crushed in the second half by the Las Vegas Aces to start their campaign back up with a loss.
- We could see Satou Sabally back on the court for the Mercury tonight. She missed the WNBA All-Star Game due to injury. But she’s not on the Phoenix injury report and her scoring would be huge for the Mercury tonight.
- Allisha Gray picked up where she left off for the Dream last night. She scored 24 points and will need to deliver again here with Rhyne Howard out through August 1.
- Both teams are in the top five in the WNBA standings entering this game. This is a huge contest for playoff seeding.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first game of the season series between these teams this season.
- Atlanta is 5-7 on the road this year. Phoenix is 9-3 on their home floor.
- Against-the-spread: Phoenix 13–9 ATS this year. Atlanta is 12-11 against the number after failing to cover in Vegas last night.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Satou Sabally | Over 17.5 points | She leads the Mercury at 19.1 PPG. |
| Allisha Gray | Over 16.5 points | Gray is at 18.6 PPG and scored 24 last night. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Pace: The tempo battle will be interesting in this game. Phoenix plays at the second-fastest pace in the WNBA. Atlanta is 10th in pace.
- Offense: The Dream rank fourth in the league in offensive rating. Phoenix is sixth in that department.
- Defense: The Mercury are third in the league in defensive rating. Atlanta is sixth in that category.
- Key matchup: Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas vs Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner. The Phoenix forwards can play all over the floor. Atlanta’s prefer to patrol the paint. That matchup will be fascinating to watch.
Dream vs Mercury Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phoenix 88 – Atlanta 79
- Win Probability: Phoenix 74%, Atlanta 26%
Final Thoughts
I expect Phoenix to bounce back at home with a balanced attack led by Sabally and Thomas. Allisha Gray will keep Atlanta competitive for a good portion of this game. But the tired legs of the Dream should allow the Mercury to pull away in the second half. I’ll lay the points with Phoenix confidently here.
