The Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury will face off in the best game on the WNBA schedule on Sunday. Both of these teams are in the top four in the WNBA standings and a win here would move both teams closer to locking up one of those all-important top four spots. Here, I break down this huge game in the WNBA and give you my Dream vs Mercury prediction.
Our Dream vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -3.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: August 10, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Dream vs Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -3.5 | Dream +140 / Mercury –166 | 164.5 |
Key Storylines
The injury situation for the Dream is a huge storyline going into this matchup. Rhyne Howard and Brittney Griner were out of action in the last game for Atlanta and their status is uncertain for this game as well. Being without both of those stars would be a huge blow for Atlanta in this contest. The Dream have won four games in a row despite their injury issues.
The Mercury are at full strength from a health perspective. They have won three games in a row and the trio of Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper are playing very good basketball as a group. All three of the Mercury’s consecutive wins have come by double-digits. And while another double-digit win is unlikely here, a victory would be huge for Phoenix on Sunday.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Dream are 2-0 against the Mercury so far this season. One of those wins came in Atlanta and the other was in Phoenix.
- Atlanta is 9-7 on the road so far this year. The Mercury are 11-4 at home on the season.
- Atlanta has averaged 92.5 points per game in their two meetings with the Mercury this year.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Allisha Gray | Over 17.5 points | Gray is averaging 18.9 PPG and has scored over 20 points in three straight games for Atlanta. |
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 8.5 assists | Thomas has three straight triple-doubles and could very well reach double-digits in assists for the fourth straight game here. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Both teams are in the top half of the league in offensive rating. Atlanta is second in that category and the Mercury rank sixth.
- Both teams are in the top five in defensive rating. Phoenix is third in defensive rating and Atlanta is fifth.
- These teams play at opposite paces. The Mercury rank second in the league in pace and the Dream are 12th in the league in that department.
Dream vs Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Atlanta Dream 82 – Phoenix Mercury 88
Win Probability: Atlanta Dream 43%, Phoenix Mercury 57%
Final Thoughts
There are a ton of question marks surrounding the Atlanta Dream roster going into this game. If Howard and Griner are able to play, I think we could see the Dream win on the road. But without confirmation that they are going to return to action here, I think we see the Mercury defend their home floor and cover the spread this game with huge playoff implications.
