The Atlanta Dream will face the Minnesota Lynx for the second time this season on Sunday night in Minneapolis. The Lynx won an overtime thriller over the Dream in their first meeting of the year. We will be in for a treat if we can get a game anywhere near as exciting as that first matchup was. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Dream vs Lynx prediction for Sunday night.
Our Dream vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -9
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: July 27, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Dream vs Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx –9 | Lynx –425, Dream +330 | 159 |
Key Storylines
Minnesota enters off a dominant 109‑78 win over the Las Vegas Aces. They got stellar offensive efforts from Napheesa Collier and Courtney Williams in that win. The Lynx are riding a four‑game win streak and all four of those wins have come by double-digits. Minnesota is unbeaten at home this year in games that count toward the regular season standings. They will need to protect the paint to move to 15-0 during the regular season at home.
Atlanta arrives after a strong road win at Phoenix. They were paced by Allisha Gray’s 28 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. But the Dream will be without Rhyne Howard until early August and games like this one will always be harder without one of the best scorers in the WNBA to help stabilize things on offense.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
These teams met earlier in the season and the Lynx edged the Dream 96‑92 in overtime in Atlanta. Minnesota has gone 16-10 against the spread this year. The Dream have a winning record against the spread at 13-11. Over/Under trends favor the over in this game. Minnesota has gone 13-13 on over/unders for the season. The Dream are 13-10-1 to the over in their first 24 games of the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense vs Defense: Minnesota shoots 46.1% from the field and Atlanta allows only 42.4% shooting. The Lynx score 85.8 points per game and Atlanta allows 78.7 points per game.
- Pace: Minnesota plays at the second-slowest pace in the league. Atlanta plays at the third-slowest pace in the W. But both teams scored over 90 points in their first meeting of the season.
- Key Mismatches: Collier should be able to spread the floor and score from the mid-range against Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner. Minnesota’s perimeter shooters and Collier’s efficiency should expose defensive gaps on the perimeter for Atlanta.
Dream vs Lynx Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota Lynx 90 – Atlanta Dream 80
Win Probability: Lynx 75%, Dream 25%
Final Thoughts
If Rhyne Howard was playing for the Dream in this game, I might be inclined to take Atlanta to keep this one close. But the loss of Howard puts too much of the scoring burdern on the perimeter on Gray. The Lynx should key in on Gray and make lesser shooters beat them. That plan should work out to another double-digit victory for Minnesota.
