The Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever have played three times already this season. Atlanta has won two of those three matchups. They will play for the fourth and final time in this regular season on Friday night. The Fever are playing for the second day in a row and will hope to overcome the fatigue associated with back-to-backs. Here, I break down this Eastern Conference matchup in the WNBA and make my Dream vs Fever prediction.
Our Dream vs Fever Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Dream Moneyline (+120)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: July 11, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: ION
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dream +2.5 (–110) Fever –2.5 (–110) | Dream +120 Fever –142 | 166.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Fever have lost two home games in a row coming into this game.
- Indiana is playing for the second day in a row. They lost at home to the Golden State Valkyries on Wednesday morning. They will look to bounce back at home in this contest.
- The Dream are on the road for the first time since June 24. They went 2-2 on a recent four-game homestand.
- Allisha Gray (19.4 PPG) and Rhyne Howard are delivering consistently from the guard spots. If they can hit shots from the outside, the Dream could punish the tired legs of the Fever on rotations.
- Caitlin Clark struggled in her return from a groin injury on Wednesday. She shot 4/12 from the field and only had 10 points in the loss to Golden State.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Atlanta is 2-1 this season against Indiana. Atlanta won the lone meeting between these teams in Indiana. A win here would clinch the regular season series for the Dream. Atlanta is 11-8 against the spread this season. Indiana is 9-10 ATS in 2025. Atlanta has gone 11-7-1 to the over for the year. Indiana has gone 11-8 to the under.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Dream are 3rd in the WNBA in offensive rating. The Fever rank 5th.
- Indiana is 5th in the W in defensive rating. Atlanta is 6th.
- Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace. Indiana plays slightly faster but the difference is not huge.
- Key mismatch: Atlanta’s frontcourt dominates on the glass. Barring a huge game from Aliyah Boston, they should do it again here.
Dream vs Fever Model Projection
Score Projection: Atlanta 87 – Indiana 85
Win Probability: Dream 52%, Fever 48%
Final Thoughts
I am expecting a close game between the Dream and Fever on Friday night. Indiana is at home and they do have Caitlin Clark back for this game. But they have still struggled to get wins at home over the last week. I think there is value on betting the Dream in this contest, in a game that could come down to the wire.
