The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a must-win situation as they head into Game 6 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Florida Panthers. After taking a 2-0 series lead, the Leafs have dropped three consecutive games, including a crushing 6-1 loss at home in Game 5. The Panthers now hold a 3-2 series advantage and have the opportunity to close out the series on home ice at Amerant Bank Arena on Friday, May 16, with puck drop scheduled for 8:00 PM ET.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 6 Preview
Toronto’s early series success has been overshadowed by recent struggles. The Leafs’ offense, which was potent in the first two games, has been stifled, managing only five goals over the last three contests. Goaltender Joseph Woll, who stepped in after Anthony Stolarz’s injury, has faced increased pressure, particularly in the lopsided Game 5 defeat where he allowed six goals.
Florida, conversely, has found its rhythm. The Panthers’ third line has been instrumental, combining for multiple points and providing the scoring depth that has tilted the series in Florida’s favor. Brad Marchand’s playoff experience and clutch performances, including an overtime winner in Game 3, have been incredibly important to the team’s success.
Special teams play has also been a differentiator. Toronto’s power play, which operated at a high success rate in the first round, has been neutralized by Florida’s penalty kill, which has been incredibly efficient this postseason. The Leafs’ inability to capitalize on man-advantage opportunities has hindered their offensive output.
Betting Insights
As of Thursday evening, online sportsbooks have the Florida Panthers favored at -230 on the moneyline, with the Toronto Maple Leafs listed at +195. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5.
Key betting trends include:
- The Panthers have won three straight games in this series, outscoring the Leafs 13-5 over that span.
- Toronto has struggled on the road in the playoffs, with a 2-3 record away from Scotiabank Arena.
- Florida is 3-1 at home during the postseason, showcasing a strong home-ice advantage.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 6 Prediction
Momentum is firmly on Florida’s side as they return home with a chance to clinch the series. The Panthers’ depth, disciplined defensive play, and effective special teams have been key factors in their recent success. Toronto, meanwhile, faces questions about their ability to adjust and respond under pressure.
Given the current trajectory of the series and the Panthers’ home-ice advantage, the smart play is on Florida to close out the series in Game 6. Bettors might also consider the under on total goals, given the recent trend of lower-scoring games between these teams.
Pick: Florida Panthers -1.5 (+115); Under 5.5 goals
