The Toronto Maple Leafs will go up against the Buffalo Sabres in the NHL on Friday night. These teams are both right around the .500 mark for the season and could use a win against a division opponent in this contest. Before the action begins in Buffalo, continue reading to get my Maple Leafs vs Sabres prediction for this contest.
Our Maple Leafs vs Sabres Pick
- Pick: Buffalo Sabres moneyline
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres
- Date & Time: Friday, October 24, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Recent form
- Toronto enters at 3-3-1 on the season. They’ve scored 3.43 goals per game while allowing 3.57 goals per game. Their power play is bottom-tier at about 12.5% scoring efficiency.
- Buffalo sits at 3-4-0, scoring 2.71 goals per game and allowing 2.86 goals per game. Their penalty-kill is strong and the power-play is converting at 25%.
- Toronto’s recent loss came by a 5-2 score to New Jersey. It exposed defensive flaws that the Sabres will try to take advantage of.
Goaltending
Toronto’s starter is Anthony Stolarz. He is 2-3-1, a GAA of 3.01, and a save percentage of .894. He hasn’t played his best and will try to be better in this contest. Buffalo’s probable starter is Alex Lyon. He is 2-4-0, has a GAA of 2.55, and a save percentage of .924. His numbers are stronger and Buffalo will hope that gives them the edge here.
Key skaters
- Toronto: William Nylander leads the Leafs with 13 points (2 goals, 11 assists) through seven games. John Tavares has four goals, five assists and remains a reliable presence on both ends.
- Buffalo: Josh Doan, Zach Benson, and Jack Quinn each sit at six points as their top contributors. Buffalo benefits from a more efficient power play and they will try to use that to their advantage.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| William Nylander (TOR) | Over 1.5 Points |
| Auston Matthews (TOR) | Over 0.5 Goals |
| Tage Thompson (BUF) | Over 0.5 Goals |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting between these teams this year.
- The Sabres are 3-4 on the puckline this season.
- Toronto is 2-5 on the puckline this year.
- Buffalo is 1-4-2 on their over/unders this season.
- Toronto is 5-2 to the over this season.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres Model Projection
Score Projection: Toronto Maple Leafs 2 – Buffalo Sabres 3
Win Probability: Toronto Maple Leafs 43% | Buffalo Sabres 57%
Final Thoughts
This is somehow just the second road game of the season for the Leafs. They lost that first road game and I expect them to struggle on the road in this game as well. The Leafs have given up nine goals over their last two games and Buffalo should take advantage of their lack of consistency on defense here. I’ll take the Sabres to win this game on the moneyline as a slight underdog in what should be a fun matchup in the Atlantic Division.
