The Tampa Bay Lightning (1-2-1) will take on the Detroit Red Wings (3-1-0) in the NHL on Friday night. The Lightning are off to a slow start this season, but they are favored on the road against a Red Wings team that is playing well early on. Here, I take a closer look at this Atlantic Division matchup in the NHL and give you my Lightning vs Red Wings prediction.
Our Lightning vs Red Wings Pick
- Pick: Detroit Red Wings Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings
- Date & Time: Friday, October 17, 2025, 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Recent form
- Detroit is 3–1 to start the season and has won three straight after a season-opening loss. Their last win came against the defending champion Florida Panthers and Detroit will try to build on that result here.
- Tampa Bay has had a rough start to the season. Their win over Boston was impressive, but they followed it with a 3–2 overtime loss to Washington. Tampa has just one win through four games and they are in danger of falling behind in the Atlantic if they don’t start getting more wins.
Goaltending
Detroit’s Cam Talbot has been outstanding early. He is 3–0 with a 1.78 GAA and a .932 save percentage. He’s been a major reason Detroit is off to this hot start. Talbot will be expected to go again for the Wings here as he looks for a fourth straight win to start his season.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is 0–2–1 with a 4.08 GAA and a .870 save percentage for the Lightning. When Vasilevskiy is at his best, he is one of the best netminders in the NHL. But he has not been at his best yet this season and the Lightning have paid dearly for that thus far.
Key skaters
- Brayden Point leads Tampa Bay with 5 points (2 goals, 3 assists). He’s been active and should continue to be a driver of their offense.
- Jake Guentzel has been a playmaker for the Lightning this season. He leads his team with four assists going into this contest.
- Alex DeBrincat leads Detroit with 6 assists. He hasn’t scored a goal yet, but his playmaking is relentless and will test Tampa’s defense.
- Patrick Kane and Dylan Larkin are off to solid starts with 5 points apiece and they will be relied on in key moments.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | Over 1.5 points |
| Brayden Point | Over 0.5 assists |
| Alex DeBrincat | Over 1.5 assists |
Betting Trends
Puckline trends: Detroit is 3-1 on the puckline so far this season. Tampa Bay is 1-3 on the puckline going into this game.
Over/Under trends: Tampa Bay’s games have gone over their totals three times through four games. The Red Wings are 1-2-1 on their totals for the season.
Lightning vs Red Wings Model Projection
Score Projection: Tampa Bay 3 – Detroit 4
Win Probability: Tampa Bay 42%, Detroit 58%
Final Thoughts
The Lightning are favored in this game but I think the Red Wings are a great underdog selection today. Detroit is on a hot streak and should continue their winning ways against a Tampa team that has struggled on defense and in net of late.
