Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Game 1 Prediction – 5/21/2025

The 2025 Western Conference Final opens Wednesday night at American Airlines Center with the Edmonton Oilers seeking a repeat series win over the Dallas Stars after sending them packing in six last spring. Puck drop is set for 8 p.m. Eastern Time, and the stakes could hardly be higher: the path to the Stanley Cup now runs through Texas, where Dallas boasts one of hockey’s toughest home environments and a red-hot Mikko Rantanen aims to stay atop the postseason scoring race.

Oilers vs Stars Game 1 Preview

Edmonton reached this round in brisk fashion, eliminating the Los Angeles Kings in six games and then ousting the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights in five, capped by Kasperi Kapanen’s overtime clincher on May 15. The Oilers have played just 11 playoff contests, so Connor McDavid (17 points) and Leon Draisaitl (16) enter Game 1 fresher than usual for mid-May.

Dallas had to survive a pair of long-distance tests, first knocking out Colorado in seven and then dispatching Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg in an overtime thriller in Game 6 last Saturday. That gauntlet has hardened the Stars, whose 58-31-6 overall mark includes a dazzling 34-11-3 ledger on home ice.

Rantanen leads all playoff scorers with 19 points in 11 games, including nine goals and an eye-popping run in which he figured in 15 of Dallas’s 17 goals during one stretch. On the opposite bench, McDavid’s 59 points in his last 36 postseason appearances underscore why the Oilers can flip any contest in a single shift. The supporting casts could decide Game 1: Evan Bouchard paces all defensemen with 12 points, while Wyatt Johnston (14 points) has been Dallas’ engine behind Rantanen.

Goaltending tips the early scales. Jake Oettinger is 8-5 with a 2.47 GAA and .919 save rate, and no one has faced and saved more dangerous shots this spring (82 saves on 98 such shots). Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner, meanwhile, lost the starter’s crease after an .817 save percentage in three outings; Calvin Pickard picked up the slack but remains on the injury list until at least next week, putting Skinner back in the crease by necessity.

Injuries could matter beyond the blue paint. Veteran defender Mattias Ekholm (undisclosed) skated in practice this week, yet is expected to miss at least the first two games, denying Edmonton a stabilizing 22-minute presence on the back end. Dallas lists only depth defenseman Nils Lundkvist (long-term IR) as a notable absence.

Betting Insights

• Moneyline: Stars −132 / Oilers +110
• Puck line: Stars −1.5 (+180) / Oilers +1.5 (−225)
• Total goals: 6.5 — Over +110 / Under −134
• Key player props (latest market averages):

  • Rantanen to score anytime: −105
  • McDavid over 1.5 points: +120
  • Oettinger saves over 28.5: −110

Oilers vs Stars Game 1 Prediction

Game 1 often hinges on goaltending, and right now, the contrast is stark. Oettinger’s form against two elite offenses—Colorado (3.33 goals per game) and Winnipeg (3.35)—inspires confidence that he can withstand Edmonton’s attack for at least one night. Skinner, by contrast, has struggled under playoff pressure and now faces a Dallas group generating 3.54 goals per game this postseason. Unless he rediscovers last year’s groove, the Oilers will rely on outscoring their opponents, which is never a safe blueprint on the road.

Dallas also owns the last change and can deploy Miro Heiskanen against McDavid more often than not. The Stars’ depth down the middle with Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz, and Tyler Seguin gives coach Pete DeBoer multiple face-off solutions against Edmonton’s top unit. With Ekholm unavailable, look for Rantanen’s line to draw softer defensive coverage, an invitation he has feasted on all spring.

Special teams offer Edmonton a lifeline: the Oilers click at 28.9 percent on the power play in these playoffs, while Dallas sits at 22.7 percent. Still, the Stars have stayed out of the penalty box (7.8 minutes per game), and Oettinger has yet to permit a long-range goal in 13 outings. If Dallas keeps themselves out of the sin bin, their five-on-five edge should prevail.

Best Bet: Stars moneyline −132. Oettinger’s reliability, home-ice advantage, and matchup flexibility outweigh Edmonton’s explosive upside, especially with Ekholm sidelined. For totals bettors, lean Under 6.5 (−134) in anticipation of Dallas dictating a more measured pace in this series opener. Projected score: Stars 4, Oilers 2.

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