Sam LaPorta projections and prop bets for Detroit Lions at Houston Texans on Nov 10, 2024
Sam LaPorta Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 3.5 over: -105
- Receptions 3.5 under: -125
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Lions are forecasted by the model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.
Sam LaPorta's 92.9% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteable progression in his receiving talent over last year's 71.7% figure.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.
At the moment, the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.
The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Texans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.
Sam LaPorta's 11.5% Target Share this year shows an impressive decline in his passing game workload over last year's 20.4% rate.
Projection For Sam LaPorta Receptions Prop Bet
Sam LaPorta is projected to have 3.2 Receptions in this weeks game.
Sam LaPorta Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 34.5 over: -110
- Receiving Yards 34.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Lions are forecasted by the model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Sam LaPorta is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.
Sam LaPorta's 92.9% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteable progression in his receiving talent over last year's 71.7% figure.
Sam LaPorta's 12.2 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a noteworthy growth in his receiving prowess over last year's 7.1 mark.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.
At the moment, the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.
The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Texans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.
Sam LaPorta's 11.5% Target Share this year shows an impressive decline in his passing game workload over last year's 20.4% rate.
Projection For Sam LaPorta Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Sam LaPorta is projected to have 35.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
