Aaron Jones projections and prop bets for Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears on Nov 24, 2024
Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 15.5 over: -110
- Carries 15.5 under: -120
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
This week's spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to earn 14.6 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Among all running backs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 88th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 56.0% of the workload in his offense's running game.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
Right now, the 6th-least run-focused team in football (37.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
The Bears safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection For Aaron Jones Carries Prop Bet
Aaron Jones is projected to have 14.1 Carries in this weeks game.
Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 16.5 over: -110
- Receiving Yards 16.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.5% pass rate.
Aaron Jones has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (49.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (37.6%).
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 77th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.
When talking about air yards, Aaron Jones grades out in the towering 96th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a staggering 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
Aaron Jones has notched significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
This week's spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
The Bears pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus RBs this year, giving up 5.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.
Projection For Aaron Jones Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Aaron Jones is projected to have 19.5 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 2.5 over: -114
- Receptions 2.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.5% pass rate.
Aaron Jones has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (49.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (37.6%).
In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 77th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.
With an impressive 2.9 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones places as one of the top RBs in the pass game in football.
Aaron Jones's 88.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents an impressive growth in his receiving talent over last season's 75.0% rate.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
This week's spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Chicago's safety corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection For Aaron Jones Receptions Prop Bet
Aaron Jones is projected to have 2.4 Receptions in this weeks game.
Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 63.5 over: -114
- Rushing Yards 63.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
This week's spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to earn 14.6 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Among all running backs, Aaron Jones ranks in the 88th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 56.0% of the workload in his offense's running game.
Aaron Jones's 72.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a remarkable boost in his rushing prowess over last year's 61.0 figure.
The Bears defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 5.00 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Right now, the 6th-least run-focused team in football (37.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.0 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
The Bears safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection For Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Aaron Jones is projected to have 60.2 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
