Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick – 5/24/2025

Fresh off a commanding start on their home floor, the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder bring a 2-0 cushion into Minneapolis for Saturday night’s Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time inside Target Center, and history looms large: teams that seize a 3-0 series edge have advanced every single time. Minnesota’s crowd will be electric, yet the visitors have thrived in hostile arenas all season, posting a 32-8 regular-season road mark that underlines their confidence away from Paycom Center.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Preview

Oklahoma City’s backcourt maestro Shai Gilgeous-Alexander accepted the 2025 MVP trophy, then dropped 38 points and eight assists in Game 2, pushing his playoff averages to 29.8 points, 6.7 assists and 5.6 boards while shooting 47.5 percent. The Thunder’s balanced cast continues to click. Second-year center Chet Holmgren adds 16.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and two blocks and flanks the perimeter with 1.5 threes per game, while versatile wing Jalen Williams poured in 26 last time out. Mark Daigneault’s group plays with pace yet protects the ball, committing only 11.4 turnovers per postseason outing, an area that has frustrated Minnesota.

The Timberwolves return to their home court needing a spark. Anthony Edwards has delivered nightly fireworks at 26.3 points, 8.2 rebounds and 5.7 assists this postseason, but efficiency dipped to 44 percent inside the first two games as Lu Dort’s on-ball pressure forced difficult looks. Veteran addition Julius Randle and two-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert have yet to impose their will; Gobert averages eight points and nine rebounds these playoffs, and Minnesota was -18 on the glass across Games 1 and 2. Coach Chris Finch hinted at using more small-ball lineups with Naz Reid to stretch Holmgren away from the rim, hoping to free driving lanes for Edwards and Mike Conley’s pick-and-roll action.

Matchups on the wings remain decisive. Dort blanketed Edwards on 38 primary possessions in Game 2, allowing only nine points, while Jalen Williams’ 7-2 wingspan disrupted passing lanes for five Minnesota turnovers. The Wolves must counter with quick-hitting actions that spring Edwards off multiple screens. Oklahoma City’s depth advantage, with Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace shooting a combined 41 percent from deep, forces Minnesota to stay home on shooters, complicating double-teams on Gilgeous-Alexander. The tactical chessboard favors the Thunder unless Minnesota lifts its defensive intensity and clamps the glass.

Betting Insights

• Point Spread: Thunder -3; Timberwolves +3
• Moneyline: Thunder -140; Timberwolves +127
• Total: 218 points
• Key Trends:
  • Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff games.
  • Timberwolves are 2-3 ATS over their previous five but 25-16 straight-up at home this season.
  • The Under is 5-1 across Minnesota’s last six postseason contests at Target Center.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Prediction

Game 3 poses the classic playoff fork in the road: Minnesota’s season teeters on the brink, yet the numbers suggest Oklahoma City’s consistent two-way execution carries more weight than Target Center’s energy. The Thunder own a playoff net rating of +12.4, driven by elite pick-and-roll synergy between Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren. With clean injury sheets, talent will decide, and Oklahoma City’s half-court offense has been sharper, generating 1.18 points per possession versus Minnesota’s 1.04 across the first two outings. Unless Edwards erupts and the Wolves clean up second-chance points, where they’ve surrendered a 27-13 edge so far, the Thunder’s pace-control and perimeter shooting should travel. Lay the short number and lean Under, anticipating Minnesota to slow tempo in a desperate defensive push.

Best Bet: Thunder -3 and Under 218.

Predicted Final Score: Oklahoma City Thunder 107.11, Minnesota Timberwolves 99.20

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Win Probabilities

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