Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Prediction – 6/11/2025

Game 3 arrives with high stakes as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to strike their first blow on the road, while the Indiana Pacers seek momentum in their first NBA Finals home game since 2000. Our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 prediction takes a closer look at the data and storylines you need to know before you place your bets.

Our Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick

• Spread: Thunder –5.5
• Total: Under 228.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers
• Date & Time: June 11, 2025, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
• Broadcast: ABC

Key Storylines

• The Thunder are riding high after Game 2’s 123–107 win to level the series; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 34 points on OKC's home floor.
• Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton is battling lingering lower-leg tightness but has confirmed he’ll play. His playmaking remains vital, especially late in games.
• Indiana’s home-court advantage will be tested against the best team in the NBA tonight.
• OKC’s defense ranks among the most stingy in the NBA. They lead the postseason in steals and defensive rating.
• Both teams are well-rested, with plenty of time off before Game 3, but OKC’s bench depth may provide an edge late.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• The Thunder won both encounters between these teams during the regular season and three of four including the two games in this series.
• Indiana is 6–2 at home in the playoffs.
• The over/under has split across both Finals games so far.

Best Player Props to Watch

Advanced Metrics & Trends

• Offensive Efficiency: Indiana is second in the postseason with a 116.7 offensive rating, while OKC's offensive rating is 116.0.
• Defensive Efficiency: Thunder dominate at a defensive rating of 105.2, with the Pacers at 116.7.
• Pace: Both teams thrive in uptempo settings, expect a fast first half and a scorer’s duel.
• Key Matchup: Gilgeous‑Alexander vs. Haliburton. OKC’s ball pressure could force Haliburton into turnovers.
• Rebounding/size: Inside edge leans OKC with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren versus Indiana’s Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Model Prediction

• Score Projection: OKC 115 – Indiana 106
• Win Probability: OKC 67%, Indiana 33%

Final Thoughts

Oklahoma City enters Game 3 with momentum, elite defense, and favorable spot after a decisive Game 2 win. Indiana has firepower and energy, but Tyrese Haliburton’s turnover tendencies and inconsistent scoring may hinder them. Expect a hard‑fought battle, yet the Thunder’s depth and defensive tenacity should carry them to a cover and a crucial road win.

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