Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick – 6/19/2025

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from their first NBA title since the franchise relocated, entering Game 6 of the NBA Finals with a 3–2 series lead over the Indiana Pacers. Set for Thursday, June 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET, the Pacers return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse aiming to force a decisive Game 7. With Tyrese Haliburton’s injury looming large and Oklahoma City’s stars delivering consistently, all eyes are on whether the Thunder can finish the job or if Indiana has one more push left.

Our Thunder vs Pacers Game 6 Pick

• Spread: Thunder –6
• Total: Under 221.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers
• Date & Time: Thursday, June 19, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Broadcast: ABC

Key Storylines

1. SGA and Williams surge: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams combined for 71 points in Game 5, continuing their elite Finals form. SGA now has 30+ points and 5+ assists in 12 playoff games this year.
2. Haliburton’s status uncertain: Indiana’s All-Star point guard is dealing with a right calf strain that severely limited him in Game 5. He plans to suit up, but his mobility could be an issue.
3. Coaching X-factors: Rick Carlisle has gotten creative with his defensive sets, but Mark Daigneault’s squad has adjusted well and continues to thrive both in transition and with half-court execution.
4. Home court energy: The Pacers have been great at home this postseason. Game 6 crowd intensity will be high, but the Thunder have been tough as nails on the road during the playoffs.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• Thunder lead the series 3–2 after a 120–109 win in Game 5.
• Thunder were 6.5-point favorites in Game 5 and covered and are now laying 5 points.
• Over has hit in three of five games this series, but Game 6 could skew under due to adjustments and pressure.
• Thunder were 68–14 in the regular season; Pacers finished 50–32.

Best Player Props to Watch

Advanced Metrics & Trends

• Efficiency: Thunder rank top three in postseason net rating, and are forcing 14 turnovers per game in the Finals.
• Pace: Oklahoma City pushes the tempo more effectively; Indiana tends to bog down without Haliburton's creation.
• Mismatches: Gilgeous-Alexander is thriving against Indiana's backcourt defense. Williams has exploited the Pacers’ wings consistently, while Holmgren’s rim protection and mobility offer a two-way edge.

Thunder vs Pacers Game 6 Model Prediction

• Score Projection: Thunder 112 – Pacers 104
• Win Probability: Thunder 72%, Pacers 28%

Final Thoughts

Oklahoma City has been the more consistent and efficient team throughout the series, and with their stars firing on all cylinders and Haliburton banged up, the Thunder have a strong chance to seal the deal on Thursday night. While Indiana will be energized at home, but the Thunder’s depth and two-way dominance tilt this game in their favor. Lay the points with OKC and consider the under as both teams may slow it down under the weight of Finals pressure.

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