Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 4 Pick – 5/11/2025

With the Denver Nuggets leading the series 2-1, Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Oklahoma City Thunder takes center stage today. The Thunder, despite a dominant regular season, find themselves in a precarious position after two losses in the first three games of the series. The Nuggets, fueled by Nikola Jokić, aim to extend their home-court advantage and edge closer to the Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 4 Preview

The Thunder entered the playoffs as the top seed with a 68-14 record, showcasing a potent offense and a solid defense. However, recent games have exposed vulnerabilities. In Game 3, despite Jalen Williams' 32-point effort, the Thunder fell short in overtime, losing 113-104. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the team's leading scorer, struggled in clutch moments, highlighting the team's reliance on his performance.

Conversely, the Nuggets have demonstrated resilience and depth. Nikola Jokić has been instrumental, delivering a 42-point, 22-rebound, and 6-assist performance in Game 1. And while Jokic has averaged just 18.5 points per game in the two games after that, supporting players like Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray have stepped up, providing crucial contributions on both ends of the floor.

The Thunder must address their late-game execution and find ways to support Gilgeous-Alexander offensively. Players like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren need to maintain their scoring outputs, while the team collectively must continue to contain Jokić's multifaceted game.

Betting Insights

• Spread: Thunder -6.5
• Over/Under: 227.5 points
• Moneyline: Nuggets +210, Thunder -250

Key player props to consider:

1. Nikola Jokić Over 27.5 Points: Despite his recent struggles, Jokic is always a threat to bounce back.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points: As the Thunder's primary offensive weapon, expect Gilgeous-Alexander to take on a significant scoring load.
3. Jalen Williams Over 23.5 Points: After a big game in Game 3, J-Dub will be a key player for the Thunder again in Game 4.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 4 Prediction

The Nuggets have capitalized on their home-court advantage and the momentum gained from proving they can hang with the top seed in the Western Conference. Jokić's versatility, coupled with the team's role players stepping up, poses significant challenges for the Thunder. Unless Oklahoma City can make strategic adjustments and enhance their defensive efforts, it's possible that Denver will secure another victory.

Prediction: Nuggets 115, Thunder 108

Pick: Nuggets +6.5

Over/Under: Under 227.5

Considering the current dynamics, backing the Nuggets to cover the spread appears prudent. Additionally, the total points may stay under the projected line, given the defensive intensity expected in this crucial matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Win Probabilities

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free NBA picks here.