New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Prediction – 5/25/2025

The Eastern Conference Finals shift to Indianapolis for Game 3 on Sunday night, and the atmosphere inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse promises to be electric. The Indiana Pacers return home with a 2-0 advantage after ripping two nail-biters from the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, first a 138-135 overtime thriller and then Friday’s 114-109 victory. New York’s high-octane backcourt, led by scoring leader Jalen Brunson, has dazzled, yet Indiana’s balance, late-game composure, and a 39-point eruption from Pascal Siakam have tilted the series in their favor. With the total sitting in the low-220s and the line holding steady around Pacers -1.5, bettors face a tight board that could swing on coaching tweaks, fresh legs, and who dictates pace on Indy’s home floor.

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Preview

Tom Thibodeau hinted at rotation changes after Game 2 and sources indicate center Mitchell Robinson is likely to replace Josh Hart in the starting five. Robinson logged 29 productive minutes Friday, snaring nine boards and blocking three shots, exactly the interior presence New York lacked during the frantic Game 1 shoot-out. A starting unit of Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Robinson adds size without sacrificing too much spacing; Towns drilled four triples in Game 1 and is averaging 27.5 points and 11.0 rebounds through the series, though his defense has been a source of criticism.

Brunson continues to shoulder an enormous workload. He tops all postseason scorers at 30.4 points per game while handing out 7.7 assists and Indiana has yet to find a clean answer for his crafty footwork. Expect more traps above the arc and weak-side help from Myles Turner, who is swatting 2.3 shots per game in these playoffs.

The Pacers counter with an egalitarian flow. Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates the league’s fastest offense, posting 18.6 points and a playoff-best 8.8 assists a night while committing fewer than two turnovers on average. Friday’s hero was Siakam, whose post-ups and mid-range touch warped New York’s help defense. Throw in Turner's rim protection, Bennedict Mathurin’s scoring punch off the pine, and Rick Carlisle’s crew looks deeper and fresher.

Key numbers lean Indy's way going into this game. The Pacers ride a 7-0 record in games within five points in the final five minutes this postseason, and have won four straight since a Game 3 stumble against Cleveland in the second round. The Knicks are a strong road squad, yet historically teams that drop the first two at home advance only 5% of the time. For New York, pace control and defensive rebounds are must-have, but Indiana has stolen the tempo and still won despite being beaten on the glass in both contests.

Betting Insights

• Current line: Pacers -1.5 / Knicks +1.5
• Moneyline: Pacers -135, Knicks +115
• Total: 223.5 points
• Recent totals: Game 1 landed 273 (after OT) and Game 2 finished right on 223. The pace has averaged 102 possessions—above the league playoff mean of 97.
• Trend watch: Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven and 20-11 ATS as a home favorite; New York is 4-6 ATS in its last ten overall but 7-2 ATS as a road underdog this postseason.
• Player props to monitor: Brunson points over 29.5 (he has cleared that in nine of his last eleven), Siakam rebounds over 7.5 (averaging 8.2 in the playoffs), and Mathurin points + rebounds over 20.5 at home.

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Prediction

Line adjustments have been modest despite the series score because oddsmakers respect New York’s urgency and the potential impact of inserting Robinson. The Knicks should own the glass with him and Towns sharing minutes, and Brunson’s pick-and-roll mastery can manufacture enough clean looks to keep pace. Yet Indiana’s half-court execution, superior bench energy, and comfort on its home floor give the hosts an edge in clutch time. Haliburton’s vision against extra pressure, plus Siakam’s ability to punish single coverage, tip the balance late.

Expect another possession-by-possession duel that pushes the total into the high-220s. Look for Carlisle to keep Tony Bradley in the rotation for spot minutes to combat Robinson, preserving Turner’s legs for the stretch run. If Mathurin breaks out of a mini-slump, New York’s defense will be stretched thin.

Pick: Pacers -1.5 and Over 223.5. Projected score: Indiana 116, New York 111. The Pacers’ diversified scoring and stingy end-game execution overcome another Brunson masterpiece, pushing the Knicks to the brink.

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 3 Win Probabilities

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