New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick – 5/27/2025

The Eastern Conference Finals have turned into a see-saw, and Tuesday night’s Game 4 in Indianapolis will be huge for the fate of the series. Indiana still owns a 2-1 cushion, yet the momentum abruptly shifted after New York’s 106-100 comeback on Sunday. With the Knicks now believing they can leave Gainbridge Fieldhouse deadlocked and the Pacers determined to re-assert control, bettors are treated to a high-stakes game featuring two explosive backcourts. Below, you’ll find a detailed preview, updated numbers, and a pick designed to help you decide where to place your bet before the 8:00 p.m. ET tip.

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 4 Preview

Game 3 illustrated how slim the margin is in this series. The Pacers sprinted to a 20-point advantage by pushing the pace to nearly 105 possessions in the opening half, only to stall when New York throttled transition lanes after intermission. Karl-Anthony Towns erupted for 20 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter while Jalen Brunson, hampered by foul trouble, still finished with 23 and orchestrated the closing possessions. That surge shortened the Pacers’ home record in these playoffs to 6-3 and reminded Indiana that live-ball turnovers could remain its undoing.

Brunson leads the entire postseason in total points (448) and is averaging 29.9 PPG. His duel with Tyrese Haliburton continues to shape every quarter; Haliburton paces all playoff performers with 9.4 APG and has created 51 three-pointers for teammates through three rounds. Indiana’s guard delivered 31 points and 11 assists in Game 1, but his distribution dipped to seven helpers during the Game 3 collapse as New York switched OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges onto him in the half-court.

Front-court play is the swing factor in this series. Towns and Pascal Siakam stretch both defenses, while Myles Turner’s rim protection is vital against Brunson’s floaters. Rick Carlisle may also lean more on forward Tony Bradley, whose size is needed off the bench against the Knicks' duo of Mitchell Robinson and the aforementioned Towns. The official injury report lists no New York players, while Indiana has Aaron Nesmith (ankle) questionable, a concern for their perimeter depth.

Betting Insights

• Spread: Pacers -2.5 (-110); Knicks +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Pacers -135; Knicks +115
• Total: 220.5 points (opened 222.5)
• Series record: Pacers 2-1
• Recent totals:
  • Game 1 – 273 combined points (Over)
  • Game 2 – 223 combined points (Under)
  • Game 3 – 206 combined points (Under)

Knicks vs Pacers Game 4 Prediction

Books continue to favor Indiana because of its pace and elite offensive rating, yet recent evidence shows New York has found effective counters. Thibodeau’s decision to guard Haliburton with length and switch every dribble-handoff limited the Pacers to 42 second-half points in Game 3. Starting two bigs has also given New York a size advantage that the Pacers struggled to cope with for the latter portions of Sunday's showdown.

Expect Carlisle to emphasize early-clock looks and off-ball movement to free Siakam on the left block, but New York’s confidence is unmistakable. Brunson’s pick-and-roll chemistry with Towns placed Turner in constant drop dilemmas, and the Pacers have not yet shown a defensive counter that sticks for four quarters. With no listed injuries for New York and Nesmith hobbled for Indiana, the Knicks' lack of bench depth could be less of a concern than usual.

Best Bet: Knicks +2.5. The series has produced two straight Unders, yet both teams continue to generate wide-open threes; minor shooting regression could nudge the total higher. Sprinkle the moneyline at +115 if you’re comfortable backing New York’s late-game shot-creation. Final score projection: Knicks 112, Pacers 108, bringing the series to 2-2 before it returns to Madison Square Garden.

New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Game 4 Win Probabilities

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